Construction method of water traffic risk dynamic assessment model

Abstract

The invention belongs to the technical field of water traffic risk assessment, and discloses a construction method of water traffic risk dynamic assessment model, and the method comprises the steps of collecting water traffic elements, and completing the establishment of an internal information set of a water traffic system on the basis of analyzing the internal structure characteristics of the water traffic system; performing water traffic risk dynamic characteristic analysis based on internal information flow of the water traffic system, and extracting a water traffic risk operation index; taking the risk operation indexes as Bayesian network nodes, and determining a Bayesian network structure; sequencing the correlation of the risk operation indexes by using a mutual information method, and screening Bayesian network nodes; and finally, inputting Bayesian network node parameters to obtain a water traffic risk dynamic assessment model. According to the method for establishing the real-time dynamic evaluation model, theoretical and technical support can be provided for water traffic safety early warning and pre-control, and the water traffic safety and the water traffic management efficiency are effectively improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of water traffic risk assessment, and in particular relates to a method for constructing a dynamic water traffic risk assessment model. Background technique [0002] At present, with the specialization and large-scale development of ships, the density of ships in important waters and waterways is increasing, the water traffic environment is becoming more and more complex, and water traffic accidents such as ship collisions, strandings, fires, and leakages occur frequently. According to the national water traffic safety situation, accidents and dangers mostly occur in complex waters such as the Three Gorges reservoir area, bridge area, and busy waters. Ships navigating in complex waters are affected by factors such as channel conditions, traffic flow, hydrometeorological conditions, and obstructions, and there are greater risks to water traffic safety. Traditional methods of water traffic safety risk assessm...

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Problems solved by technology

[0003] In the prior art, the research on the water traffic safety system is not deep enough, and there is a lack of research on the characteristics and structure of the water traffic safety system. As a result, the construction of the existing water traffic risk assessment models is mostly based on static indicators, and the dynamics and regional applicability of the evaluation model Poor sex

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