Power consumption prediction method and system based on features and trend perception

Abstract

The invention provides a power consumption prediction optimization method and system based on features and trend perception. The method comprises the steps of obtaining historical power data of a to-be-predicted user; based on the historical power data, using a pre-trained power consumption prediction model to predict the power consumption of the user; the training method of the power consumption prediction model specifically comprises the following steps: based on historical power training data, separately extracting power consumption features and a power consumption change trend, and training a feature-based power consumption prediction model and a trend-based power consumption prediction model to obtain a first prediction vector and a second prediction vector; and by combining the first prediction vector and the second prediction vector, finishing the training of a final power consumption prediction model by using a weight recombination method. The power consumption is predicted from the two aspects of the change trend of the historical power consumption of the user and the influence of the feature factors on the power consumption, and the prediction precision is higher.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of intelligent power consumption, in particular to a method and system for predicting power consumption based on feature and trend perception. Background technique [0002] With the continuous development of the smart grid, electricity forecasting plays an increasingly important role in the development of the electricity market. The quality of prediction performance is the basis for ensuring the accurate and reliable operation of the power grid system; at the same time, it can avoid resource waste and improve economic benefits in the process of power grid dispatching. Therefore, how to improve the accuracy of power forecasting based on historical power data is of great significance for making more economical power generation plans and analyzing power market demand. [0003] In the traditional forecasting method, the power forecasting model based on time series realizes the prediction of the user's power consumption. ...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0003] In the traditional forecasting method, the power forecasting model based on time series realizes the prediction of the user's power consumption. However, due to various uncertain factors contained in the power grid system, the decision-making work must face a certain degree of risk. The traditional forecasting method The impact of external factors on the performance of power consumption forecasting is ignored; at the same time, most of the traditional forecasting methods are based on the power forecasting of historical power consumption trends, without considering the influence of power consumption by characteristic factors, which often makes the power forecasting accurate. lower sex

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