Distributed photovoltaic ultra-short-term generated power prediction method and system

A distributed photovoltaic and power generation technology, applied in the field of power dispatching, can solve problems such as undisclosed prediction algorithms, achieve the effect of solving blind tube blind adjustment, small delay, and ensuring network stability

Pending Publication Date: 2022-02-08
NANYANG POWER SUPPLY COMPANY OF STATE GRID HENAN ELECTRIC POWER
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  • Application Information

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  • Distributed photovoltaic ultra-short-term generated power prediction method and system
  • Distributed photovoltaic ultra-short-term generated power prediction method and system
  • Distributed photovoltaic ultra-short-term generated power prediction method and system

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Embodiment 1

[0044] The purpose of this embodiment 1 is to provide a distributed photovoltaic ultra-short-term power prediction method, such as figure 1 As shown, the forecasting method includes:

[0045] 1. Step S1, training based on sample data to obtain a distributed photovoltaic power prediction model.

[0046] This step S1 is mainly to use sample data to train a distributed photovoltaic power prediction model. Specifically, such as figure 2 As shown, step S1 includes:

[0047] (1) Step S11, acquiring sample data.

[0048] The sample data includes historical power generation and historical weather data.

[0049] The existing technology shows that the direct factors affecting the power of photovoltaic power generation are the solar radiation intensity and surface temperature irradiated on the surface of photovoltaic panels, so the radiation intensity and temperature can be used as direct influencing factors to predict the power of photovoltaic power generation.

[0050] However, c...

Embodiment 2

[0095] The purpose of Embodiment 2 is to provide a distributed photovoltaic ultra-short-term power forecasting system, the forecasting system is used to implement the forecasting method, in order to achieve the above purpose, the present invention adopts the following technical solutions:

[0096] The prediction system includes an acquisition unit and a prediction unit.

[0097] The collection unit is used to collect weather forecast data and real-time power generation of the distributed photovoltaic power station, and can also obtain location information of the distributed photovoltaic power station. The collection unit of the present invention includes a weather forecast module and a power grid collection terminal; the power grid collection terminal is installed at the connection between the distributed photovoltaic power station and the power grid, and is connected to the 5G private network of the power department, and can pass the collected data through 5G transmission to ...

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Abstract

The invention provides a distributed photovoltaic ultra-short-term generated power prediction method and system, and belongs to the technical field of power dispatching. The prediction method comprises the following steps: S1, training based on sample data to obtain a distributed photovoltaic power prediction model; s2, according to real-time generated power and weather forecast data, utilizing the distributed photovoltaic power prediction model to carry out generated power prediction; the step S1 comprises the following steps: S11, acquiring sample data, wherein the sample data comprises historical power generation power and historical meteorological data; s12, performing normalization processing on the sample data; s13, establishing an LSSVM (least square support vector machine) prediction model; s14, optimizing kernel parameters of the LSSVM model by using a particle swarm algorithm; and S15, constructing a distributed photovoltaic power generation power prediction model. According to the invention, by constructing the generation power prediction model and the prediction system, distributed photovoltaic online prediction modeling and model online training optimization are realized, high-precision power prediction data are output, and the new energy grid-connected access and consumption management level is improved through auxiliary scheduling.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of electric power dispatching, and in particular relates to a distributed photovoltaic ultra-short-term generating power prediction method and system. Background technique [0002] With the large-scale construction of new energy stations across the country, the grid-connected scale of wind power, photovoltaics, and distributed power sources is increasing. Due to the general volatility and intermittent characteristics of these new energy power generation, the peak-shaving and frequency-regulating pressure on the power grid Therefore, it brings more and more challenges to power grid dispatching. In order to achieve precise dispatching of the power grid, on the one hand, it is necessary to grasp the output data of new energy stations in real time, and on the other hand, it is also necessary to predict its power generation. [0003] At present, there are distributed photovoltaics used by low-voltage households ...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06F30/25G06F30/27G06N3/00G06N20/10G06Q10/04H02J3/00
CPCG06F30/25G06F30/27G06Q10/04H02J3/003G06N20/10G06N3/006H02J2300/26Y02E10/56Y02A30/00Y02P80/20
Inventor 曲永张庶贾乐宁肖旭文袁昉周林邵丽李宜珂
Owner NANYANG POWER SUPPLY COMPANY OF STATE GRID HENAN ELECTRIC POWER
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