Same-tower multi-loop transmission circuit risk probability assessment method

Abstract

The invention discloses a same-tower multi-loop transmission circuit risk probability assessment method, comprising the following steps of: assessing each external risk value of a same-tower multi-loop transmission circuit through a statistical analysis method; modeling in a combined manner, and assembling each internal risk value of the same-tower multi-loop transmission circuit by combining the statistical analysis method; and accessing a total probability risk index value by combining each external risk value and each internal risk value according to a total probability formula. The same-tower multi-loop transmission circuit risk probability assessment method provided by the invention can be comprehensively and entirely realized, and reliable parameter estimation and reasonability analysis can be carried out by operating statistical data through a power transmission and transformation facility with national and local calibers, so that a rigorous mould principle, reasonable parameters and a credible assessment result can be realized. The invention provides a probability risk assessment method in a super-grid popularization same-tower multi-loop technology, and provides quantitative reliable assessment and engineering auxiliary criterion for the super-grid popularization same-tower multi-loop technology.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of transmission network reliability assessment, and in particular relates to a risk probability assessment method for complex transmission types such as multi-circuit transmission lines on the same tower. Background technique [0002] With the continuous advancement of the urbanization process, land resources are becoming increasingly scarce, and the land available for transmission line corridors is decreasing. It is necessary to increase the transmission capacity per unit line corridor width. As the load increases year by year, the transformation of urban power grids cannot be stagnant. Affected by urban planning, the transformation of the power grid is often limited to the original corridors. In order to increase the transmission capacity, it is necessary to increase the voltage level and increase the transmission loop. Removing old lines and building new ones in the original line corridor, boosting volta...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

However, compared with tower multi-circuit power transmission and conventional single-circuit power transmission, the most prominent reliability problem is that the failure rate of common mode failure will be greatly increased. The failure mode of multi-circuit should include independent failure, aging failure, common cause failure, Overlap fault etc.

Therefore, simple combination modeling is not enough to obtain an accurate reliability model of multiple circuits on the same tower

In addition, most of the 500kV transmission lines currently in operation are single-circuit or double-circuit on the same tower, and more than double-circuit 500kV multi-circuit on the same tower is still rare. However, there is no theoretical model and evaluation method for the reliability of multiple circuits on the same tower, and there is no full-probabilistic risk evaluation model and evaluation method that combines theoretical models with statistical analysis of severe weather.

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