Method for forecasting heavy rainfall by boundary aggregation method

Abstract

The invention relates to a method for forecasting heavy rainfall by a boundary aggregation method. By the method, the problem of forecasting the heavy rainfall can be solved effectively. According to the technical scheme, the method comprises the following steps of: 1, selecting a boundary layer; 2, analyzing bounded points on a boundary layer; 3, judging an aggregation area; and 4, dividing a heavy rainfall falling area. The invention provides a simple and objective method for performing mesoscale analysis by utilizing a weather map. By the method, a forecaster can forecast the heavy rainfall falling area without the reference of any numerical forecasting products and the calculation of physical quantity to improve the accuracy of the forecasting of torrential rain in the area; and the mesoscale analysis is performed on a specific isobaric surface according to the principles of frontogenesis kinematics and dynamics, and the bounded points are determined, so that the rainfall forecasting is performed by utilizing the aggregation area which are enclosed by the bounded points. Therefore, the method is a specific method for forecasting the heavy rainfall falling area by the boundary aggregation method.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of meteorology, in particular to a method for forecasting heavy precipitation using the boundary aggregation method. Background technique [0002] Affected by global warming, my country's disastrous weather is showing a trend of frequent occurrence, reoccurrence, and sudden occurrence, especially floods, mudslides, and urban fishing disasters caused by heavy rainfall are becoming more and more prominent, and their impact is also increasing For example, in August 1975, the Huaihe River Basin in southern Henan was affected by a typhoon and caused heavy rain and floods, resulting in the collapse of Banqiao, Shimantan and other reservoirs, and the collapse of Zhumadian Reservoir. Heavy rainfall not only caused huge economic losses, but even endangered the safety of people's lives; [0003] Our country attaches great importance to the development of meteorology. The success of numerical weather prediction is one of the most...

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Problems solved by technology

[0015] The above-mentioned "north", "south", "right front", "left side", "slightly behind" and other geographical location analysis of the precipitation area, this is the analytical synoptic forecast of the heavy precipitation area , the above traditional forecasting method, the size of the landing area is not specific, it is not easy to determine, it is often predicted by the experience of technicians, and it is more difficult to judge the strength and landing point;

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