Electrical power system risk ranking method and application

Abstract

The invention provides an electrical power system risk ranking method. The electrical power system risk ranking method can be used to formulate risk level standards of an electrical power system in different seasons, and obtains a current risk level of the electrical power system in a current season according to the risk level standard of the electrical power system in the current season. Compared with an existing ranking method, the electrical power system risk ranking method does not need to set a multiple attribute decision matrix or index weight, avoids influences of subjective factors, can scientifically and objectively evaluate overall risks of the electrical power system, and is high in accuracy. The invention provides an application which guides run scheduling of the electrical power system according to a risk ranking result of the electrical power system. When running modes of the electrical power system change or a device breaks down, the system risks are uniformly ranked according to the formulated risk level standard under a basis running mode of the electrical power system in the current season, the ranking result can intuitively reflect influences on the system risk level, caused by changes of the running modes and device failures, electrical power system run scheduling personnel are guided by the ranking result to adopt control measures to keep the system risks at the acceptable risk level.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of power system risk assessment and risk classification, in particular to a power system risk classification method and application. Background technique [0002] The probabilistic risk assessment method establishes a risk index system based on the probability of system failure events and the severity of the consequences of these events, which provides a powerful tool for identifying the risk level of the system in an uncertain operating environment. Evaluating the risk level of the entire system (that is, dividing the risk level) according to the system's risk indicators and realizing the hierarchical management of risks has important guiding significance for the planning and operation personnel of the power grid. [0003] Power equipment includes generator sets, lines and transformers, and lines include cables and overhead lines. In the actual operation of the power system, with the increase of the load level, the ...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

Although this risk classification method considers the relationship between system risk and operating status, it is obviously too rough to judge whether the system is safe in terms of low voltage and overload based on the average voltage and average load rate: for example, if the average load rate is less than 1, it is still There may be overloading of the line, making the system "unsafe"

Therefore, the risk classification method is not accurate, and the obtained risk classification results cannot guide dispatchers to take measures to control system risks.

[0005] In addition, some studies adopt the system sub-indicator (Severity Index) to develop a unified risk level standard for all systems, but the basis for grading is not clear enough, and this risk level standard is not applicable to all systems: different systems have different reliability, acceptable The risk level is also different (the acceptable risk level of a system with high reliability is lower than that of a system with low reliability), so the risk level standards of different systems should be different

[0006] To sum up, the existing power system risk classification methods have poor accuracy and are not universal for different power systems.

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