Solar power generation capacity prediction method for photovoltaic power station

A photovoltaic power station and forecasting method technology, applied in forecasting, data processing applications, instruments, etc., can solve problems such as the inability to obtain available solar power generation, achieve objective forecasting and evaluation results, and improve accuracy

Active Publication Date: 2015-02-18
XUJI GRP +1
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  • Application Information

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Problems solved by technology

[0005] The purpose of the present invention is to provide a method for predicting the amount of solar energy generated by a photovol...

Method used

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  • Solar power generation capacity prediction method for photovoltaic power station
  • Solar power generation capacity prediction method for photovoltaic power station
  • Solar power generation capacity prediction method for photovoltaic power station

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Embodiment Construction

[0028] The present invention will be further introduced below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments.

[0029] like figure 1 Shown is the flow chart of the method for predicting the amount of solar power that can be used by photovoltaic power plants in the present invention, and the method includes the following steps:

[0030] (1) Calculate the average annual peak sunshine hours and the installed capacity of the photovoltaic power station in the area where the photovoltaic power station is located in recent years.

[0031] The BP neural network LM algorithm is used to calculate the average annual peak sunshine hours in the area where the photovoltaic power station is located in recent years. The specific process is as follows: learn and train the solar radiation database obtained from long-term observations by different solar radiation observation stations, and the input layer neurons are the items The longitude and latitude of the location, t...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a solar power generation capacity prediction method for a photovoltaic power station. The method includes the steps of firstly, calculating the annual average peak sunshine hours of recent years of the region where the photovoltaic power station is located and the installed capacity of the photovoltaic power station; secondly, calculating the solar power generation capacity Wn of the nth year of the photovoltaic power station and the total solar power generation capacity Wtotal of set years of the photovoltaic power station according to the annual average peak sunshine hours, the installed capacity and photovoltaic module attenuation rates. The method has the advantages that the method is applicable to various regions and meteorological conditions, the generated daily average irradiance of each month, annular average irradiance, installed capacity, annual solar power generation capacity in N years and total solar power generation capacity are representative, solar irradiation data accuracy of regions away from a local solar irradiation observation station or regions without a solar irradiation observation station is increased, and prediction and evaluation results are objective and reasonable.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of photovoltaic power plants, and in particular relates to a method for predicting the amount of solar power that can be used by a photovoltaic power plant. Background technique [0002] Under the current international background of energy shortages such as oil and coal, all countries have stepped up the pace of developing photovoltaics. The United States proposed the "Solar Pioneer Plan" to reduce the cost of solar photovoltaic power generation so that it can reach the level of commercial competition in 2015; Japan also proposed to reach a total photovoltaic power generation capacity of 28GW in 2020; the European Photovoltaic Association proposed "setfor2020" Planning, planning to make photovoltaic power generation commercially competitive in 2020; my country has abundant photovoltaic resource reserves, with a theoretical reserve of 1,700 billion tons of standard coal per year, and the potential for solar en...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/06375G06Q50/06Y04S10/50
Inventor 王贤立刘桂莲王以笑王国军申织华赵萌萌王春艳张燕龚晓伟张鹏飞
Owner XUJI GRP
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