Non-stationary fluctuating wind speed forecasting method based on EMD-ELM

Abstract

The invention provides a non-stationary fluctuating wind speed forecasting method based on EMD-ELM. The method comprises the following steps: generating a non-stationary fluctuating wind speed sample by utilizing a TARMA model in a simulated manner, and dividing the fluctuating wind speed sample into a training set and a test set two parts, and carrying out normalization processing on the sample by utilizing Matlab; carrying out EMD processing on time sequence of the non-stationary fluctuating wind speed sample, and decomposing non-stationary nonlinear fluctuating wind signals into a group of stationary and linear sequence sets; carrying out phase-space reconstruction on the group of IMFs, and establishing corresponding ELM prediction models respectively; and carrying out superposition on the forecast results of the group of IMFs to obtain forecasted non-stationary fluctuating wind speed of the point, meanwhile, comparing the test sample with the forecasted non-stationary fluctuating wind speed result, and calculating average error, root-mean-square error and correlation coefficient of the forecasted wind speed and the actual wind speed. The invention provides a fast-speed and good-effect method for non-stationary fluctuating wind speed prediction.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a single-point non-stationary fluctuating wind speed prediction method using the combination of empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and extreme learning machine (ELM), specifically a non-stationary fluctuating wind speed prediction method based on EMD-ELM. Background technique [0002] For long-span space structures, long-span bridges, high-rise building structures, and high-rise structures, such as guyed masts, TV towers, chimneys and other buildings, wind load is one of the control loads for structural wind resistance design. The wind resistance analysis of the structure must first obtain the sample data of the wind load. At present, the main research methods to determine the wind engineering include theoretical analysis, numerical simulation, wind tunnel test and field measurement. With the rapid development of computer technology and people's in-depth research on numerical simulation technology of stochastic processes, the u...

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Problems solved by technology

Analysis of a large number of actual test data shows that many wind speed records under complex terrain in strong wind environment do not meet this stability requirement

Especially in the non-stationary fluctuating wind environment with complex terrain and strong wind, when the assumption of stationary wind speed is adopted, the non-stationary data needs to be discarded, which will lead to large analysis errors, such as the turbulence intensity value will be overestimated, which will affect the accuracy of subsequent analysis sex

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