Hydropower station scheduling risk assessment method and system based on runoff interval prediction

Abstract

The invention discloses a hydropower station scheduling risk assessment method based on runoff interval prediction. The method mainly comprises: acquiring a cumulative probability density distribution function of predicated flow error according to analysis for the predicated flow error; simulating the flow process on the basis of actual flow predication intervals and predicated flow variable error intervals in a certain confidence probability; obtaining the output power, the final water level and the reservoir discharge flow of a hydroelectric power station, and comparing the output power, final water level and the reservoir discharge flow with the actual output power, actual final water level and actual reservoir discharge flow of the hydroelectric power station obtained according to the actual flow; finally acquiring the risk probability of abandoning water and the risk probability of failing to complete load tasks. The invention also provides a risk assessment system. The hydropower station scheduling risk assessment method and system can not only make up for the defect of the conventional non-linear stochastic simulation runoff predication method, but largely promote the accuracy of runoff predication results, and provide reference for the middle-term and long-term predications for runoff.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of hydropower energy optimization, and in particular relates to a method and system for calculating the dispatching risk of a hydropower station based on runoff interval prediction. Background technique [0002] Water resources are basic natural resources. During the development and utilization of water resources, runoff prediction and optimal scheduling of hydropower stations are important issues. Reliable runoff prediction is a powerful means and an important link to make full use of water resources, truly realize optimal operation of reservoirs, and exert economic benefits of power stations; hydropower station dispatching schemes are related to optimal allocation of resources and stable operation of power grids. [0003] Since the distribution of hydropower is limited by natural conditions such as hydrology, climate, and landform, and has the characteristics of random fluctuations, in actual operation of the hydrop...

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Problems solved by technology

However, the existing non-linear stochastic simulation methods for runoff prediction have the following defects: due to the dependent structure of the hydrological sequence and the artificially assumed probability density function may not always be consistent with reality, if the assumed probability distribution type is not established or accurate, it will undoubtedly affect The accuracy of the incoming water forecast results, that is to say, when the actual flow is greater than the predicted flow, the hydropower station faces the risk of abandoning water in order to complete the load task of the power grid; conversely, when the actual flow is smaller than the predicted flow, the hydropower station faces the risk that the load task cannot be completed

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