Power distribution network lightning disaster failure prediction method

Abstract

The invention provides a power distribution network lightning disaster failure prediction method. The method comprises the steps that a lightning partition is determined based on multiple times of forecasts of lightning ranges; the direct stroke ground lightning probability and the lightning induction overvoltage occurrence probability of circuits where poles and towers are located are determined; the lightning stroke tripping probability is determined according to the lightning shielding failure tripping probability and the beat back tripping probability of the circuits where the poles and towers are located; the lightning induction overvoltage tripping probability of the circuits where the poles and towers are located is determined according to the induced overvoltage maximum value of wires, the lightning induction overvoltage failure rate of the circuits where the poles and towers are located is obtained by establishing a fuzzy mathematical model, and therefore the lightning induction overvoltage tripping probability of the circuits where the poles and towers are located is obtained, wherein the lightning current intensity is taken into consideration; by establishing a power distribution circuit temperature model, the instantaneous failure probability of a feeder section in an area to be detected is determined according to the service duration of power distribution circuits; a power distribution circuit lightning disaster power distribution circuit failure probability model with aging failure and correction taken into consideration is established; the failure probability of the feeder section in the area to be detected is predicated.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of power distribution, in particular to a lightning disaster fault prediction method for a distribution network. Background technique [0002] In recent years, with the rapid development of the power grid, lightning faults frequently occur. As the most direct and critical part between the power system and users, lightning disasters have become the main hazard to the safe and reliable operation of my country's distribution network. [0003] At present, lightning fault prediction methods include: Some are based on limited severe thunderstorm events and related meteorological data and power grid fault data, and use mathematical statistical analysis to establish a grid failure rate regression model, but there are few thunderstorm events, long time intervals, and poor real-time performance , which has great limitations on prediction; some only consider the lightning trend and do not consider the influence of ligh...

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Problems solved by technology

[0003] At present, lightning fault prediction methods include: Some are based on limited severe thunderstorm events and related meteorological data and power grid fault data, and use mathematical statistical analysis to establish a grid failure rate regression model, but there are few thunderstorm events, long time intervals, and poor real-time performance , which has great limitations on prediction; some only consider the lightning trend and do not consider the influence of lightning current intensity on the distribution line lightning-induced overvoltage failure probability; some lightning failure probability predictions only consider a single lightning disaster, but in practice , lightning often occurs simultaneously with rainfall, and the raindrops in the discharge gap will increase the field strength of the air gap and cause distortion, which directly affects the probability of lightning flashover; The influence of the aging effect of the line itself

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