A Lightning Disaster Fault Prediction Method for Distribution Network

Abstract

The invention provides a method for predicting lightning disaster faults in a distribution network. The method is as follows: determining lightning zones based on multi-time lightning range forecasts; determining the direct lightning probability and lightning induced overvoltage occurrence probability of the lines where each tower is located; The probability of lightning strike tripping and the probability of counterattack tripping are used to determine the probability of lightning strike tripping; the maximum value of the induced overvoltage on the conductor is used to determine the lightning-induced overvoltage tripping probability of the line where the tower is located, and the lightning-induced overvoltage failure rate of the line where the tower is located is obtained by constructing a fuzzy mathematical model. , thereby obtaining the lightning-induced overvoltage tripping probability of the lines where each tower is located considering the lightning current intensity; by establishing a distribution line temperature model, and determining the instantaneous fault probability of the feeder section in the area to be measured based on the service time of the distribution line; establishing a model that considers aging failure And correct the distribution line failure probability model under lightning disaster; predict the probability of failure of the feeder section in the area to be measured.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of power distribution, in particular to a lightning disaster fault prediction method for a distribution network. Background technique [0002] In recent years, with the rapid development of the power grid, lightning faults frequently occur. As the most direct and critical part between the power system and users, lightning disasters have become the main hazard to the safe and reliable operation of my country's distribution network. [0003] At present, lightning fault prediction methods include: Some are based on limited severe thunderstorm events and related meteorological data and power grid fault data, and use mathematical statistical analysis to establish a grid failure rate regression model, but there are few thunderstorm events, long time intervals, and poor real-time performance , which has great limitations on prediction; some only consider the lightning trend and do not consider the influence of ligh...

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Problems solved by technology

[0003] At present, lightning fault prediction methods include: Some are based on limited severe thunderstorm events and related meteorological data and power grid fault data, and use mathematical statistical analysis to establish a grid failure rate regression model, but there are few thunderstorm events, long time intervals, and poor real-time performance , which has great limitations on prediction; some only consider the lightning trend and do not consider the influence of lightning current intensity on the distribution line lightning-induced overvoltage failure probability; some lightning failure probability predictions only consider a single lightning disaster, but in practice , lightning often occurs simultaneously with rainfall, and the raindrops in the discharge gap will increase the field strength of the air gap and cause distortion, which directly affects the probability of lightning flashover; The influence of the aging effect of the line itself

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