Method for simulating potential distribution of endangered pinaceae plants

Abstract

The invention discloses a method for simulating potential distribution of endangered pinaceae plants. The method comprises the following steps: firstly obtaining actual distribution points and distribution ranges of an endangered species, selecting main environment variables for the distribution of the species so as to construct an actual appearance database; on such basis, constructing a virtual distribution database, randomly drawing part of data from the virtual distribution database as a modeling database, and taking the rest part as a verification database; on the basis of the modeling database, selecting a plurality of ecological niche models to construct a plurality of prediction databases; comparing a model prediction database with the verification database, and selecting optimized combination of geographic position accuracy, environment variable models, the ecological niche models and methods; on the basis of the selected optimized combination and the actual appearance database, finally constructing an endangered species potential distribution database. The method disclosed in the invention can be used for overcoming the defects of bad accuracy, large error and high uncertainty factors of the endangered species simulation, and is beneficial for greatly improving the prediction effect.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to endangered plant protection technology, and relates to a method for simulating the potential distribution of endangered pinaceae plants. Background technique [0002] An endangered species refers to a species with a high probability of extinction in a relatively short period of time, and requires in situ or ex situ conservation in areas where its distribution is concentrated and potential distribution areas. Endangered pine plants are an important class of endangered species, mainly distributed in inaccessible or remote mountain tops and uninhabited areas, and play a key role in maintaining ecological balance, maintaining water and soil, and protecting biodiversity. Habitat degradation is one of the main reasons for the endangerment of wild Pinaceae populations, and protection needs to be strengthened urgently. It is particularly necessary to reasonably predict its suitable distribution area through the model. [0003] Existi...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

However, compared to common species, the simulation of endangered species has the following three problems: 1) The distribution of endangered species is relatively small or the sampling representation is low (there is sampling bias), resulting in low data quality

However, for endangered species, some have an extremely limited distribution, while others have a wider distribution, but random sampling in the field suffers from sampling bias, resulting in low representativeness of the data

2) The simulation process of the ecological niche model is complex and has many uncertain factors

The working principle, algorithm and simulation process of the models are quite different, and the prediction of the potential distribution area of ​​species is uncertain, and the prediction results obtained are quite different; even for the same model, due to the existence of random grouping simulation, the The results are not exactly the same

3) The actual distribution of endangered species is unknown, and it is difficult to obtain all distribution data

The existence of these problems leads to the extremely low (or impossible) prediction accuracy of the niche model for endangered species, which limits the application of the niche model in the protection of endangered species

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