Wind power plant time-space dynamic correlation modeling method and system
A space-time dynamic and correlation technology, applied in the direction of instruments, data processing applications, forecasting, etc., can solve the problems that cannot reflect the characteristics of the lower tail of wind speed, achieve accurate space-time dynamic correlation, and improve the effect of matching
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[0034] Example one
[0035] Through the probability distribution model of wind speed, combined with the relationship between wind speed and wind turbine output power, the probability distribution model of wind turbine output is obtained, so as to determine the wind power random model of the wind farm.
[0036] Such as figure 1 As shown, the method for modeling spatio-temporal dynamic correlation of wind farms disclosed in the first embodiment of the present invention includes the following steps:
[0037] Step 101: Obtain the probability density function of the first parameter of wind speed according to the historically measured wind speed samples of the wind farm
[0038] The probability distribution model of wind speed is the basis of wind energy resource analysis. In recent years, a large number of literatures have studied the probability distribution of wind speed. Different theoretical distributions are used to fit wind speed. The main theoretical distributions are: Weibull distr...
Example Embodiment
[0069] Example two
[0070] Taking the wind speed of a certain period of time in a wind farm as an example, the correlation of wind speed is analyzed by constructing a hybrid Copula function. Based on the historical measured data of wind speed in a certain period of time, the maximum expectation algorithm is used to estimate the parameters of the hybrid Copula function, and the estimated parameter value θ is obtained i And the corresponding weight coefficient ω i , As shown in Table 1 below:
[0071] Table 1
[0072]
[0073] In order to quantitatively evaluate the accuracy of the wind farm correlation model, the relative error index ε and the average root mean square (ARMS) index ξ of the sum of variance are used to evaluate the accuracy of the built model. The calculation formulas of the indexes ε and ξ are as follows.
[0074]
[0075]
[0076] Where P wf Is the total active power of wind power obtained by simulation, P wr Is the actual value. P wfi And P wri They are respect...
Example Embodiment
[0081] Example three
[0082] Such as image 3 As shown, a system for modeling wind speed probability distribution disclosed in the embodiment of the present invention includes: a sample storage module with a central processing unit and a running memory connected via a local area network, a wireless access network, or a network bus interface, and a probability distribution Calculation module, hybrid Copula function construction module, and probability distribution model establishment module.
[0083] Among them, the sample storage module is used to store historical measured wind speed samples;
[0084] The probability distribution calculation module is used to obtain the first parameter probability density function of the wind speed according to the historically measured wind speed samples of the wind farm; obtain the probability density function of the active power output of the wind turbine according to the relationship between the wind speed and the output power of the wind turbin...
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