Train control vehicle equipment reliability prediction method based on performance degeneration

A technology of on-board equipment and prediction methods, applied in the field of train control systems, can solve problems such as inaccurate reliability of train control equipment, achieve the effect of solving untimely prediction and unreasonable response, and reducing train failures

Active Publication Date: 2017-04-26
BEIJING JIAOTONG UNIV
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  • Summary
  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0004] In view of the above reasons, it is inaccurate to predict the reliability of train control equipment by simply starting from a certain performance characteristic quantity to analyze the component life.

Method used

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  • Train control vehicle equipment reliability prediction method based on performance degeneration
  • Train control vehicle equipment reliability prediction method based on performance degeneration
  • Train control vehicle equipment reliability prediction method based on performance degeneration

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Experimental program
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Embodiment 1

[0049] Traditional reliability research methods mostly assume that only a single device in the system degrades or fails. However, in an actual system, there may be situations where the performance of multiple devices degrades or fails, and the interrelationships between devices make the occurrence of faults relevant. Failure of a component may be caused by other components, not the end of its own life. In view of the above reasons, it is not of practical significance to predict the reliability of train control equipment simply by analyzing the life of components based on a certain performance characteristic.

[0050] The embodiment of the present invention establishes a system framework for reliability prediction of on-board equipment for train control based on performance degradation. figure 1 As shown, the framework includes two parts: prediction of failure rate of on-board train control equipment based on performance degradation and reliability evaluation of on-board train...

Embodiment 2

[0056] figure 2 An ARMA predictive modeling process for train control on-board equipment provided in an embodiment of the present invention, combined below figure 2 The ARMA prediction modeling process and prediction effect verification of train control on-board equipment are described.

[0057] The present invention adopts the ARMA model in the time series analysis method to establish the prediction model of each fault failure rate of the train control subsystem, and obtains the failure rate of each fault type of the train control system by calculating the current and early fault data, and according to the ARMA model, the input The failure rate of each failure type is processed, and the failure rate of each failure type is predicted at the next moment. Specific steps are as follows:

[0058] (1) Determine the predicted quantity: {the total number of failures M of a certain component or equipment within a certain period of time, the continuous running time t, the number n ...

Embodiment 3

[0065] image 3 The EMD+ARMA predictive modeling process of a kind of train control on-board equipment provided for the embodiment of the present invention, combined below image 3 The EMD+ARMA prediction modeling process and prediction effect verification of train control on-board equipment are described.

[0066] The present invention adopts the ARMA failure rate prediction based on EMD, and by decomposing the failure rate series of various failure types with EMD, IMF subsequences and trend items are obtained, and then each subsequence is predicted by ARMA analysis method, and then the The predicted failure rate sequence is reconstructed, and finally the failure rate prediction sequence of various types of failures can be obtained. The specific description is as follows:

[0067] The empirical mode decomposition is performed on the original failure rate series of various fault types, and is divided into a series of subsequences according to different characteristics, namely...

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Abstract

The invention provides a train control vehicle equipment reliability prediction method based on performance degeneration; the method comprises the following steps: using ARMA and improved EMD+ARMA to carrying out performance degeneration process modeling according to present and early stage various fault type data of the train control vehicle equipment, and predicting fault rates of various fault types of the train control vehicle equipment in future time; using a gradually regression analysis method to carry out performance degeneration process modeling for fault rate prediction values of various fault types, predicting the fault rate of the whole train control vehicle equipment in the future time, and calculating a reliability prediction value of the train control vehicle equipment in the future; using a FMECA algorithm to calculate fault severe level of various fault types of the train control vehicle equipment in the future time, and estimating the train control vehicle equipment reliability in the future time according to the reliability prediction value and the fault severe level. The method can solve the problems that train control is complex, the easily failure vehicle equipment reliability prediction is not timely, and responses are not reasonable, thus effectively reducing train fault generation.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of train control systems, in particular to a reliability prediction method for train control vehicle equipment based on performance degradation. Background technique [0002] The train control system is the abbreviation of the train operation control system. It is the core part of railway transportation. The real-time evaluation and prediction of the reliability of the train control system is to discover and confirm these potential risk factors in time, and to complete the response process in a timely and reasonable manner. Therefore, the research on the reliability evaluation strategy of train control system is of great significance for high-speed railway transportation. Due to the rapid development of high-speed railway, its safe, stable and efficient operation has become a major national demand. For the train control system, during the long-term operation of the train, due to the wear and tear of compone...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G05B23/02
CPCG05B23/0221G05B23/024
Inventor 上官伟蔡伯根张凤娇王剑刘江张军政
Owner BEIJING JIAOTONG UNIV
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