Method for predicating coincident index between distributed wind power generation output and heating load

Abstract

The invention provides a method for predicating a coincident index between a distributed wind power generation output and a heating load, wherein the method relates to the field of wind power generation technology. According to the method, after phase spatial reconstruction is performed on a nonlinear time sequence of a system parameter of a wind-generated power heating system, distributed wind power generation output and heating load synchronous index mathematical modeling are performed through using the nonlinear time sequence as a sample set. A fuzzy neural network is utilized for solving the mathematical model. Predication is performed on system synchronism at a next time period for aiming at data after phase spatial reconstruction, and a predicated value of the coincident index between the distributed wind power generation output and the heating load. The method provided by the invention performs functions of performing real-time monitoring on a heat-and-power cogeneration system, measuring a system operation parameter and a geographical environment parameter of the system, predicating the coincident index between the distributed wind power generation output and the heating load, controlling the heat-and-power cogeneration system according to a calculation result, effectively using wind energy, and remarkably improving reliability and economical performance in operation of the heat-and-power cogeneration system.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of wind power generation, in particular to a method for predicting the synchronization index of distributed wind power generation output and heating load. Background technique [0002] From the perspective of energy industry development, in order to solve the problem of abandoning wind during the heating season in the "Three Norths" region, electric thermal storage boilers are used to replace small coal-fired boilers, and to increase the electricity load during low-load periods in winter, cogeneration systems are increasingly popularized. In the past, the calculation method for the synchronization of distributed wind power output and heating load was characterized by ignoring the interaction relationship between the grid structure and geographical and meteorological conditions, and calculating the synchronization of the combined heat and power system based on a single meteorological condition, which could not...

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Problems solved by technology

In the past, the calculation method for the synchronization of distributed wind power output and heating load was characterized by ignoring the interaction relationship between the grid structure and geographical and meteorological conditions, and calculating the synchronization of the combined heat and power system based on a single meteorological condition, which could not effectively utilize the power grid. Operating status data and comprehensive geographical and meteorological data resources, the calculation accuracy and reliability are not high

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