DTMGM+ grey model based cloud prediction and forecasting method

Abstract

The invention relates to a diagonal transformation matrix grey prediction model DTMGM+ based cloud prediction and forecasting method, and belongs to a specific application of a computer information processing technology in the field of atmospheric science research. The cloud prediction and forecasting method is characterized in that original satellite cloud image (remote sensing data) or a satellite remote sensing product is enabled to act as a data source, a small amount of adjacent historical data is utilized to act as a data set, a data matrix in an m*m window taking a fixed position point as a center within each time level data plane is utilized to build a time matrix sequence in the data set, a DTMGM+ grey prediction model is built, a growth factor and an extinction factor are set to perform regulation and control on a result outputted by the model, the development trend of a value at each position point in the future is predicted through model solving, predicted values of all of the fixed position points are combined to output a new product set, and finally the local or overall state of target information is analyzed in the product set representing a future state so as to realize prediction and forecasting for the lift history process of the cloud at a future moment.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the specific application of computer information processing technology in the field of atmospheric science research. In particular, it relates to a cloud forecasting and forecasting method based on DTMGM+ gray model. Background technique [0002] Clouds are visible aggregates of water vapor and condensation nuclei in the atmosphere, and are one of the most important meteorological elements, as well as an important factor that characterizes the behavior of the Earth's atmospheric system and the geophysical state. In terms of cloud prediction methods, although the cloud prediction method based on numerical weather prediction (numerical model) based on the internal cause of atmospheric system evolution in atmospheric science has sufficient dynamics, thermodynamics and physical theory support, the prediction results The interpretation is very complicated, and it is limited in practice; the cloud prediction method based on linear e...

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Problems solved by technology

In terms of cloud prediction methods, although the cloud prediction method based on numerical weather prediction (numerical model) based on the internal cause of atmospheric system evolution in atmospheric science has sufficient dynamics, thermodynamics and physical theory support, the prediction results The interpretation is very complicated, and it is limited in practice; the cloud prediction method based on linear extrapolation, which takes the external performance characteristics of cloud movement as the observation point, is simple, but it has the problems of short prediction timeliness and low prediction accuracy, and only It can predict the movement of the center of mass (or center) of existing cloud clusters, but cannot predict the birth of clouds and the dissipation of clouds

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