Cloud Prediction and Forecasting Method Based on gm(1,1) Gray Model

Abstract

The invention, which belongs to the specific application of the computer information processing technology in the field of atmospheric science research, provides a cloud forecasting and forecasting method based on a first order-variable gray prediction model GM(1,1). The method is characterized in that an original satellite cloud picture (remote sensing data) or a satellite remote sensing product is used as a data source and a small amount of proximity data are used as a data set; a time sequence is constructed by using data at fixed position points of all time intervals in the data set to establish a gray prediction model; a growth factor and an extinction factor are set to control a model output result; future development trends of numerical values at the position points are solved by model calculation; prediction values of all the fixed position points are combined and the combined value is outputted as a new product set; and then a local or overall state of target information is analyzed in a product set representing a future state to realize prediction and forecasting of evolution processes of cloud generation, development, movement, combination, and extinction of clouds in future.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the specific application of computer information processing technology in the field of atmospheric science research. In particular, it relates to a cloud forecasting and forecasting method based on the GM(1,1) gray forecasting model. Background technique [0002] Clouds are visible aggregates of water vapor and condensation nuclei in the atmosphere, and are one of the most important meteorological elements, as well as an important factor that characterizes the behavior of the Earth's atmospheric system and the geophysical state. In terms of cloud prediction methods, although the cloud prediction method based on numerical weather prediction (numerical model) based on the internal cause of atmospheric system evolution in atmospheric science has sufficient dynamics, thermodynamics and physical theory support, the prediction results The interpretation is very complicated, and it is limited in practice; the cloud prediction method ...

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Problems solved by technology

In terms of cloud prediction methods, although the cloud prediction method based on numerical weather prediction (numerical model) based on the internal cause of atmospheric system evolution in atmospheric science has sufficient dynamics, thermodynamics and physical theory support, the prediction results The interpretation is very complicated, and it is limited in practice; the cloud prediction method based on linear extrapolation, which takes the external performance characteristics of cloud movement as the observation point, is simple, but it has the problems of short prediction timeliness and low prediction accuracy, and only It can predict the movement of the center of mass (or center) of existing cloud clusters, but cannot predict the birth of clouds and the dissipation of clouds

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