Cloud Forecasting and Forecasting Method Based on dtmgm+ Gray Model

Abstract

Gray Forecasting Model DTMGM Based on Diagonal Transformation Matrix + The cloud forecasting and forecasting method belongs to the specific application of computer information processing technology in the field of atmospheric science research. Its characteristics are: using the original satellite cloud image (remote sensing data) or satellite remote sensing products as the data source, using a small amount of nearby historical data as the data set, and using the m* centered on the fixed position point in the data plane of each time in the data set The data matrix in the m window constructs the time matrix sequence and establishes DTMGM + Gray forecasting model, set the growth factor and extinction factor to regulate the output of the model, predict the future development trend of the value at the position point through model calculation, and output the predicted values ​​of all fixed position points as a new Product set, and finally analyze the partial or overall state of the target information in the product set representing the future state, so as to realize the prediction and forecast of the cloud life history process in the future.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the specific application of computer information processing technology in the field of atmospheric science research. In particular, it relates to a cloud forecasting and forecasting method based on DTMGM+ gray model. Background technique [0002] Clouds are visible aggregates of water vapor and condensation nuclei in the atmosphere, and are one of the most important meteorological elements, as well as an important factor that characterizes the behavior of the Earth's atmospheric system and the geophysical state. In terms of cloud prediction methods, although the cloud prediction method based on numerical weather prediction (numerical model) based on the internal cause of atmospheric system evolution in atmospheric science has sufficient dynamics, thermodynamics and physical theory support, the prediction results The interpretation is very complicated, and it is limited in practice; the cloud prediction method based on linear e...

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Problems solved by technology

In terms of cloud prediction methods, although the cloud prediction method based on numerical weather prediction (numerical model) based on the internal cause of atmospheric system evolution in atmospheric science has sufficient dynamics, thermodynamics and physical theory support, the prediction results The interpretation is very complicated, and it is limited in practice; the cloud prediction method based on linear extrapolation, which takes the external performance characteristics of cloud movement as the observation point, is simple, but it has the problems of short prediction timeliness and low prediction accuracy, and only It can predict the movement of the center of mass (or center) of existing cloud clusters, but cannot predict the birth of clouds and the dissipation of clouds

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