Bayesian network model used for cascade hydropower stations risk analysis and construction method

A technology of Bayesian network and risk analysis, applied in the field of Bayesian network model and construction of cascade hydropower station risk analysis, can solve problems such as common cause failure, and achieve the effect of comprehensive coverage, clear hierarchy and clear logic

Inactive Publication Date: 2017-12-19
POWERCHINA CHENGDU ENG
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AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

In the prior art, the risk analysis methods commonly used in water conservancy and hydropower projects, such as fault tree analysis method, event tree analysi...

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  • Bayesian network model used for cascade hydropower stations risk analysis and construction method
  • Bayesian network model used for cascade hydropower stations risk analysis and construction method
  • Bayesian network model used for cascade hydropower stations risk analysis and construction method

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Embodiment Construction

[0038] The present invention aims to propose a Bayesian network model and construction method for risk analysis of cascade hydropower stations, which comprehensively considers various risk factors of cascade hydropower stations, and provides strong theoretical and technical support for risk identification and evaluation of hydropower projects.

[0039] In terms of specific implementation, the Bayesian network model construction method for risk analysis of cascade hydropower stations in the present invention includes the following steps:

[0040] 1. Use the engineering risk system decomposition identification method based on the basic functional requirements of safe operation to identify the risks affecting the functions of cascade hydropower stations;

[0041] 2. Combining the characteristics of Bayesian network construction, considering the probability dependence relationship, referring to historical statistical data, related literature, hydropower project naming conventions, ...

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Abstract

The invention relates to the field of water conservancy and hydropower engineering, and discloses a Bayesian network model used for cascade hydropower stations risk analysis and a construction method. Various risk factors of a cascade hydropower station are comprehensively considered. Strong theoretical and technical supports are provided for hydropower engineering risk identification and assessment. The construction method provided by the invention comprises the steps that a an engineering risk decomposition identification method based on the basic functions of safe operation is used to identify the function affecting risk of the cascade hydropower station; b all specific risk factors which affect the cascade hydropower station are comprehensively considered, and are defined as node variables to form a variable set; c the risk factors in the variable set are hierarchically filled in a table from high to low, so as to acquire a risk factor causal logic relationship hierarchy table; and d according to the causal relationship among the variables in the risk factor causal logic relationship hierarchy table, a single arrow is used to connect all variables into a directed acyclic graph to complete the construction of the Bayesian risk network model used for the cascade hydropower station.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of water conservancy and hydropower engineering, in particular to a Bayesian network model and a construction method for risk analysis of cascade hydropower stations. Background technique [0002] Cascade hydropower station projects, especially large-scale and giant projects, have the characteristics of large investment, long cycle, complex operating environment, and many influencing factors. It is a highly comprehensive system engineering. Affected by objective uncertain factors such as natural conditions (geology, hydrology, climate, etc.), construction conditions (environment, traffic, etc.) Constantly encountering new problems and new challenges, quality defects or hidden dangers may appear in all stages of design, construction, and commissioning, which brings a lot of uncertainty to the safe operation of the project. [0003] These uncertain factors are intertwined and jointly affect the safe operation of hydrop...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/06G06Q50/06E02B1/02
CPCE02B1/02G06Q10/0635G06Q50/06Y02A10/40
Inventor 李永红张元泽王仁坤陈群刘浩吾
Owner POWERCHINA CHENGDU ENG
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