Bayesian network model used for cascade hydropower stations risk analysis and construction method

Abstract

The invention relates to the field of water conservancy and hydropower engineering, and discloses a Bayesian network model used for cascade hydropower stations risk analysis and a construction method. Various risk factors of a cascade hydropower station are comprehensively considered. Strong theoretical and technical supports are provided for hydropower engineering risk identification and assessment. The construction method provided by the invention comprises the steps that a an engineering risk decomposition identification method based on the basic functions of safe operation is used to identify the function affecting risk of the cascade hydropower station; b all specific risk factors which affect the cascade hydropower station are comprehensively considered, and are defined as node variables to form a variable set; c the risk factors in the variable set are hierarchically filled in a table from high to low, so as to acquire a risk factor causal logic relationship hierarchy table; and d according to the causal relationship among the variables in the risk factor causal logic relationship hierarchy table, a single arrow is used to connect all variables into a directed acyclic graph to complete the construction of the Bayesian risk network model used for the cascade hydropower station.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of water conservancy and hydropower engineering, in particular to a Bayesian network model and a construction method for risk analysis of cascade hydropower stations. Background technique [0002] Cascade hydropower station projects, especially large-scale and giant projects, have the characteristics of large investment, long cycle, complex operating environment, and many influencing factors. It is a highly comprehensive system engineering. Affected by objective uncertain factors such as natural conditions (geology, hydrology, climate, etc.), construction conditions (environment, traffic, etc.) Constantly encountering new problems and new challenges, quality defects or hidden dangers may appear in all stages of design, construction, and commissioning, which brings a lot of uncertainty to the safe operation of the project. [0003] These uncertain factors are intertwined and jointly affect the safe operation of hydrop...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

In the prior art, the risk analysis methods commonly used in water conservancy and hydropower projects, such as fault tree analysis method, event tree analysis method, decision tree analysis method (referred to as "three-tree" analysis method), etc., do not have the ability to deal with the "common cause failure" problem

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