A Vulnerability Assessment Method for Structural Systems Based on Explicitly Connected Bayesian Networks

Abstract

The invention discloses a method for assessing the vulnerability of a structural system based on an explicit connected Bayesian network (ECBN). This method aims at the limitations of the traditional fragility analysis which mainly focuses on the component level and seldom considers the probabilistic dependencies between components to carry out system failure probability reasoning. The present invention considers the joint effect of multiple component damage by displaying connected Bayesian networks, and proposes The root node prior probability evaluation model based on the multi-dimensional performance limit state equation strives to truly reflect the damage state of the components and improve the evaluation accuracy; the AHP is used to consider the probability dependencies between components and construct the conditional probability information of the intermediate nodes of the Bayesian network. It is especially practical in the absence of damage data, and the reasoning from component vulnerability to structural system vulnerability is finally realized through variable elimination algorithm. Make up for the lack of research on the vulnerability assessment of large-scale engineering structure systems, and provide scientific support for the safe construction and effective operation of major engineering structure systems.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of reliability analysis and evaluation, and relates to a failure probability analysis method of an engineering structure system. The method considers the joint effect of various component probability dependencies and different performance limit states of the structure, and develops a method based on an explicit connected Bayesian network (ECBN). A new method for vulnerability analysis of structural systems. Background technique [0002] Structural vulnerability is defined as the conditional probability of a structure suffering a specific damage state under different levels of external action, which is a branch of structural reliability analysis. Vulnerability first originated in the early 1970s and was applied to the seismic probability risk analysis of nuclear power plants. The seismic vulnerability analysis of structures usually uses ground peak acceleration (PGA), spectral acceleration (SA) and other par...

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Problems solved by technology

[0003] However, the traditional structural vulnerability analysis mainly focuses on the component level, and the research on the overall vulnerability assessment of the structure as a system is relatively scarce. The most vulnerable components of the structure (for example, bridge systems usually use pier columns) are generally used to replace the structural system vulnerability. However, there is no effective method for fragility reasoning from components to structural systems; most of them consider the response demand parameters of a single structure, construct its demand model, and achieve the purpose of simplifying the analysis, without considering the failure probability under the joint action of multiple performance limit states

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