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Short-time proximate value weather forecasting system and method

A numerical weather forecast and short-term technology, applied in the field of optical detection, can solve the problems of inaccurate weather forecast, poor real-time performance, and large data processing error, so as to improve the level of refined forecast, improve real-time performance and accuracy, and improve accuracy degree of effect

Active Publication Date: 2018-12-21
中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所
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  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

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Problems solved by technology

However, in practice, it is found that in the existing weather forecast system, the real-time observed meteorological data cannot be integrated into the forecast system in time, and at the same time, the radar observation data cannot be assimilated in real time. Secondly, the existing system uses a one-dimensional static reference atmosphere , it is easy to cause large calculation errors
It can be seen that the existing weather forecast system has poor real-time performance and large data processing errors, resulting in inaccurate weather forecasts

Method used

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  • Short-time proximate value weather forecasting system and method

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Embodiment 1

[0048] see figure 1 , figure 1 It is a schematic structural diagram of the short-term now numerical weather forecast system provided in this embodiment. like figure 1 As shown, the short-term near numerical weather forecast system includes a pre-processing subsystem 100, an assimilation subsystem 200, a forecast subsystem 300 and a post-processing subsystem 400, wherein:

[0049] The pre-processing subsystem 100 is used to obtain the background field, boundary field and radar inversion wind field of the target area to be forecasted from the observation device using the vertical velocity suppression technology, and generate a cloud analysis field based on the background field and boundary field .

[0050] In this embodiment, the above-mentioned observation device can be a radar, a typhoon prepackaged paper, an air detection device, a wind profile detection device, a ground station, and a radiosonde station, etc., which can collect the required data. limited.

[0051] In th...

Embodiment 2

[0076] see figure 2 , figure 2 It is a schematic structural diagram of the short-term now numerical weather forecast system provided by the second embodiment of the present invention. in. figure 2 The short-term now numerical weather forecast system shown is composed of figure 1 It is obtained by optimizing the short-term nowcasting numerical weather forecasting system shown.

[0077] like figure 2 As shown, the forecast subsystem 300 includes a mode selection module 301, a first forecast module 302, a second forecast module 303 and a third forecast module 304, wherein:

[0078] The mode selection module 301 is used to select one or more forecast modules from the first forecast module 302, the second forecast module 303 and the third forecast module 304 as the target module group, and send the three-dimensional lattice field to the target module group included in the forecasting module.

[0079] The first prediction module 302 is configured to perform data processing...

Embodiment 3

[0097] see image 3 , image 3 It is a schematic flow chart of the short-term now numerical weather forecast method provided by the third embodiment of the present invention. Such as image 3 As shown, the short-term now numerical weather prediction method includes the following steps:

[0098] S601. Obtain the background field, boundary field and radar inversion wind field of the target area where the weather is to be forecasted, and generate a cloud analysis field based on the background field and boundary field.

[0099] S602. Perform variational assimilation processing on the radar inversion wind field and the cloud analysis field to obtain an initial field.

[0100] In the embodiment of the present invention, the variational assimilation is based on the Grapes-m3dv version, and a multi-scale assimilation version is developed, and a multi-scale assimilation scheme is adopted for the observation data. In the process of minimizing the objective function, different grids a...

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Abstract

The invention provides a short-time proximate value weather forecasting system with the ultrahigh resolution ratio (cloud-resolving scale). The short-time proximate value weather forecasting system comprises a preprocessing subsystem, an assimilating subsystem, a forecasting subsystem and a postprocessing subsystem. The preprocessing subsystem is used for obtaining a background field, a boundary field and a radar retrieved wind field of a target area with the to-be-forecasted weather and generating a cloud analysis field according to the background field and the boundary field. The assimilating subsystem is used for conducting variation assimilation processing on the radar retrieved wind field and the cloud analysis field which are obtained by the preprocessing subsystem to obtain an initial field, and the initial field is subjected to cloud analysis processing to obtain a three-dimensional lattice position field. The forecasting subsystem is used for conducting data processing according to the three-dimensional lattice position field to obtain forecasting data. The postprocessing subsystem is used for generating comprehensive forecasting information according to the forecasting data. According to the short-time proximate value weather forecasting system provide by the invention, the fine forecasting level of a small-scale convection system in the to-be-detected area can be effectively increased.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of optical detection, in particular to a short-term near numerical weather forecasting system and method. Background technique [0002] Weather forecast information is an important information that people pay attention to in daily life. With the development of weather forecast technology and the popularization of Internet and mobile communication technology, people are pursuing more accurate and real-time weather forecast. Based on the data observed by meteorology, people apply the principles and methods of synoptics, dynamics, and statistics to make qualitative or quantitative forecasts of the weather conditions in the area where the weather is to be predicted for a certain period of time in the future. However, in practice, it is found that in the existing weather forecast system, the real-time observed meteorological data cannot be integrated into the forecast system in time, and at the same time, the rad...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G01W1/10G01S13/95
CPCG01S13/95G01W1/10Y02A90/10
Inventor 陈子通钟水新戴光丰徐道生张艳霞万齐林张诚忠丁伟钰
Owner 中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所
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