A distribution network operation risk sensing method and device

Abstract

The invention provides a distribution network operation risk sensing method and device, which firstly carries out ultra-short-term load forecasting and distribution network state estimation. Determinethe evaluation index value of each distribution network in the distribution network evaluation index system; perceiving the risk of distribution network operation, the perceived results can provide the basis for operators to find out the causes and sources of the risk, without limitation and with high accuracy, which can provide a reliable basis for the formulation of risk prevention and controlmeasures; the invention can effectively reduce the influence of the measurement error and the measurement bad data on the real-time operation situation assessment result of the distribution network, give the overall perception result of the operation risk of the distribution network, quantify the real-time operation state of the distribution network, and provide important technical and data support for the operation control of the distribution network. The invention more accords with the characteristics of the dynamic state estimation algorithm of the power system, reduces the calculation timeof the state estimation, and improves the calculation precision of the state estimation.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of distribution networks, in particular to a method and device for detecting risks in distribution network operation. Background technique [0002] The safe operation of the distribution network is an important part of the safe operation of the entire power grid, and it is the key link to improve the operation level of the power supply system. Therefore, it has become an urgent problem to be solved to accurately assess the potential risks in the operation of the distribution network and provide references for operation dispatchers so as to take preventive measures and indirectly improve the security of power supply. Traditional distribution network risk assessment focuses on the establishment of risk assessment and early warning system from the macro level or distribution network risk assessment based on probability and statistics methods. Although it can reflect the overall risk level of distribution networ...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0005] In order to overcome the shortcomings of the above-mentioned prior art with large limitations and low accuracy of sensing results, the present invention provides a distribution network operation risk sensing method and device for ultra-short-term load forecasting and distribution network state estimation based on the prediction results ;Determine the evaluation index values ​​of each distribution network in the pre-built distribution network evaluation index system based on the state estimation results; Perceive the operation risk of the distribution network based on the evaluation index values ​​of each distribution network, and the obtained perception results are for operators to discover and find out Provides basis for risk causes and risk sources, without limitations, high accuracy, and can provide a reliable basis for the formulation of risk prevention and control measures

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