Railway transportation risk probability calculation method based on a hybrid heuristic rule system

A hybrid heuristic and risk probability technology, applied in the field of railway transportation risk probability calculation, can solve problems such as difficulty in explaining different simulation results, small amount of data, and large amount of information

Active Publication Date: 2019-04-12
HANGZHOU DIANZI UNIV
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Problems solved by technology

Simulation-based method: build a simulation model for the dynamic process of railway operation. The advantage of this method is that it has a good visual effect for the dynamic characteristics. The disadvantage is that the simulation modeling requires a lot of information and it is difficult to explain the different simulations generated in each run. Results; network-based method: Since the railway operates in a transportation network, cities (stations) can be used as nodes, and lines (connections) between two cities can be used as lines. This method is suitable for complex structure...

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  • Railway transportation risk probability calculation method based on a hybrid heuristic rule system
  • Railway transportation risk probability calculation method based on a hybrid heuristic rule system
  • Railway transportation risk probability calculation method based on a hybrid heuristic rule system

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Embodiment Construction

[0046] The present invention comprises the following steps:

[0047] The input of step (1) is to collect the environmental monitoring volume, equipment monitoring volume, and transportation monitoring volume of a certain railway transportation section, where the environmental monitoring volume includes the rainfall f measured by the rain gauge 1 (t), the unit is mm, f 1 (t)≥0; the wind speed measured by the anemometer is f 2 (t), the unit is m / s, f 2 (t)≥0; the visibility f measured by the visibility observer 3 (t), unit m, f 3 (t)≥0, the frost data f is measured by the ground temperature sensor 4 (t), unit ℃, f 4 (t) ∈ [-50, 50]; equipment monitoring includes locomotive f 5 (t), vehicle f 6 (t), track f 7 (t), signal system f 8 (t), pantograph f 9 (t) failure time, unit h, f j (t) ∈ [0,72], j = 5, 6, 7, 8, 9; the transport monitoring volume includes the number of overcrowded passengers f 10 (t), unit is unit, f 10 (t)≥0, cargo overload weight f 11 (t), unit ton,...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a railway transportation risk probability calculation method based on a hybrid heuristic rule system. The method comprises the steps that firstly, the environment monitoring quantity, the equipment monitoring quantity and the carrying monitoring quantity of a certain railway transportation interval are collected, and the railway transportation risk probability is output; secondly, reducing the intersection heuristic confidence rule through a reduction rule to obtain a hybrid heuristic rule system comprising the intersection and the union; and finally, an evidence reasoning (ER) algorithm is utilized to fuse the confidence structure in the item after the activated confidence rule is input to obtain the risk probability. According to the invention, various elements ofrailway transportation risk calculation, including environment monitoring quantity, equipment monitoring quantity, carrying monitoring quantity and the like, can be processed; the method comprises intersection rules and union rules, so that the total number of the rules can be reduced, the rule combination explosion problem is avoided, and the calculation efficiency is improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method for calculating the risk probability of railway transportation based on a hybrid heuristic rule system, which belongs to the field of railway transportation safety. Background technique [0002] Safety is the eternal theme of railway transportation, and safety is the most important quality feature of railway transportation products. With the development of the society and the advancement of technology, especially in recent years, the continuous promotion and deepening of the work research in the field of railway safety, the railway safety technology has made great progress. The development of risk probability calculation has been highly valued by various railway departments. Risk probability calculation has made remarkable achievements not only in theory but also in practice, and has played a positive role in reducing railway transportation accidents. [0003] At present, relevant researchers have proposed many method...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/06G06Q50/30
CPCG06Q10/0635G06Q50/30
Inventor 徐晓滨雷杰常雷雷侯平智胡燕祝黄大荣
Owner HANGZHOU DIANZI UNIV
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