Deformation-based real-time safety monitoring threshold determination method in arch dam running period

Abstract

The invention relates to a deformation-based real-time safety monitoring threshold determination method in an arch dam running period. The deformation-based real-time safety monitoring threshold determination method comprises the steps of building a mesh model for reflecting structure main characteristic; performing deformation value separation to obtain a water pressure deformation component; reflecting a dam structure material parameter; performing full-dam full-process simulation analysis, forecasting and developing dam deformation under conditions of a water level, a temperature, dam shoulder and creep within a certain time; performing water level, temperature, dam shoulder deformation and creep single factor deformation influence analysis by simulation analysis to obtain a deformationdevelopment rule; obtaining dam deformation under an actual condition by an interpolation algorithm according to the actual water level, the temperature, the dam shoulder deformation and the creep and by developing the water level, the temperature, the dam shoulder deformation and the creep; determining a deformation allowable fluctuation range according to monitoring and calculation deformation;and finally, obtaining the real-time deformation monitoring threshold. By the deformation-based real-time safety monitoring threshold determination method, the dam deformation is accurately forecasted, favorable explanation of a physical mechanism is achieved, meanwhile, the real-time dynamic change of an index is monitored, and real-time and accurate monitoring can be achieved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of dam safety operation control, and in particular relates to a deformation-based method for determining a real-time safety monitoring threshold during the operation period of an arch dam. Background technique [0002] High arch dams generally bear huge water thrust and high stress levels. Once a problem occurs, it will have a great impact on society, ecology, economy, etc. The main responsibility of the management department is an important guarantee for national flood control, water supply, power generation, ecology, and the safety of people's lives and property. For ultra-high arch dams, the task is especially arduous. There are two main ways to evaluate the safety of arch dams during operation: one is the regular or special safety inspection at the national or industry level to comprehensively evaluate the safety of the dam, usually once every five years, and the timeliness is poor; the other is the daily safety m...

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Problems solved by technology

[0006] (1) Statistical model is the most widely used model, and it is an empirical model, which lacks physical background and explanatory power, has poor extension, and cannot accurately monitor ultra-high and ultra-low water levels or temperatures that have not occurred before;

[0007] (2) The dam deformation monitoring model based on neural network, genetic algorithm, etc. is similar to the statistical model, which also lacks obvious physical background and explanation, and has poor extension and has the characteristics of long calculation time;

[0008] (3) Mixed model and deterministic model, physical explanation is good, but the calculation is complicated, and a single or constant monitoring value with upper and lower limits is generally used, and the accuracy of real-time dynamic monitoring is not high

[0023] (1) The predicted deformation given by widely used statistical methods or new algorithms cannot be effectively extended, that is, the impact of the water level, temperature, and abutment deformation that have occurred in the past can be predicted in a short time, but once superelevation or superelevation occurs Low water level, etc., existing methods cannot make accurate predictions;

[0024] (2) The monitoring threshold given by the existing hybrid method or deterministic method is generally a constant value calculated based on the extreme high water level or low water level, or the upper and lower limit values, which has nothing to do with changes in water level and temperature during actual operation. Unable to achieve precise monitoring

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