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Statistical model for altitude prediction of atmospheric mixing layer based on surface meteorological parameters

A technology of meteorological parameters and prediction models, which is applied in the direction of weather forecasting, forecasting, meteorology, etc., can solve the problems of no way to directly determine MLH, insufficient MLH information, and high cost, so as to reduce the burden of simulation, reduce calculation steps, improve The effect of accuracy

Inactive Publication Date: 2019-10-29
长沙岁峰健康科技有限公司
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Problems solved by technology

[0003] However, the information about MLH is still insufficient. MLH is the only meteorological parameter that has not been fully understood and applied. The main reason is that there is no way to directly determine MLH at present. Fast calculation and accurate prediction model of atmospheric mixed layer height

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  • Statistical model for altitude prediction of atmospheric mixing layer based on surface meteorological parameters
  • Statistical model for altitude prediction of atmospheric mixing layer based on surface meteorological parameters
  • Statistical model for altitude prediction of atmospheric mixing layer based on surface meteorological parameters

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Embodiment 1

[0045] Such as figure 1 As shown, the present invention provides a statistical model based on the prediction of the height of the mixed layer of the atmosphere based on the surface meteorological parameters. By accurately predicting the height of the mixed layer of the atmosphere, it is convenient to carry out air pollution prediction and weather forecast, and it can be accurately known that the pollutants are in the The distribution of concentration in a year is of great significance to environmental protection and pollution prevention.

[0046] The model building steps of the present embodiment are mainly as follows: First, by collecting the atmospheric meteorological parameters that affect the height of the atmospheric mixed layer in real time, then carrying out multiple linear regression calculations to the atmospheric meteorological parameters as a whole, and establishing the relationship between the mixed layer height (MLH) and the atmospheric meteorological parameters F...

Embodiment 2

[0087] Using the established mixed layer height prediction model, taking Changsha, Hunan Province (seriously polluted, hot summer and cold winter) as the research city, this study uses meteorological parameter observation stations to record and count atmospheric meteorological parameters from 2013 to 2018, specifically hourly temperature ( T), wind speed (WS), solar radiation (SR), pressure (P), relative humidity (RH) and dew point temperature (DT). And the real value of the mixed layer height per hour during this monitoring period is calculated by the 4th version of the HYSPLIT model, and the calculated data can be used as the real MLH of the observation station, but because the HYSPLIT model system is relatively old and the processing method is complicated, the operation Therefore, the main purpose of this embodiment is to upgrade and improve the original HYSPLIT model for measuring the height of the mixed layer, reduce calculation steps, and reduce calculation difficulty.

...

Embodiment 3

[0108] Embodiment 2 mainly uses the calculation of related systems to reflect which of the three models is closer to the actual situation. This embodiment mainly unifies the actual value of the mixed layer height in a year and the predicted value of the mixed layer height under the three models. In the same coordinate system, the model with the largest error is summarized by drawing the functional connection between the three models and the actual value.

[0109] figure 2 The MLH predictions and actual values ​​of the three models of the day-night cycle were compared from 2013 to 2018. The statistical cycle is specific to the month. First, the surface meteorological parameters at the same time detection points in each month were averaged, and then statistical multiple linear regression was performed. Build a monthly mixed layer height detection model.

[0110] It shows that the diurnal cycle of MLH is characterized by the rapid growth and decline of MLH, the midday MLH chang...

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Abstract

The embodiment of the invention discloses a statistical model for the altitude prediction of an atmospheric mixing layer based on surface meteorological parameters. The statistical model comprises thefollowing steps of: selecting a monitoring position and a monitoring period, detecting the daily surface meteorological parameters of the monitoring position at equal time intervals, and simultaneously recording the actual value of the mixing layer altitude corresponding to each detection time point; using the vertical section data corresponding to each surface meteorological parameter as a multivariate meteorological variable, and establishing an MLH prediction model for the time points in the entire monitoring period by using multiple linear regression; and calculating the correlation coefficient between the predicted value of the mixing layer altitude and the actual value of the mixing layer altitude of the MLH prediction model, and analyzing the accuracy of the model prediction. The quadratic optimization simulation for the MLH prediction model reduces the computational burden of the MLH prediction model, reduces the calculation steps, and predicts the altitude of the atmosphere mixing layer simply, quickly and accurately.

Description

technical field [0001] The embodiments of the present invention relate to the technical field of prediction of the height of the mixed layer of the atmosphere, and in particular to a statistical model for the prediction of the height of the mixed layer of the atmosphere based on surface meteorological parameters. Background technique [0002] The mixed layer of the atmosphere is the atmospheric boundary layer above the near-surface layer where turbulent flow is controlled by thermal convection. All atmospheric material exchange processes between land or water surfaces occur in the mixed layer. The mixed layer height (MLH) is the most important characteristic of the mixed layer, and the mixed layer height is also an important parameter to study the emission of pollutants from the surface to the atmosphere. The higher the height of the mixed layer, the more conducive to the vertical diffusion of pollutants. Therefore, the height of the mixed layer is an important factor in det...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G01W1/10G06Q10/04
CPCG01W1/10G06Q10/04
Inventor 邓启红缪玉峰邓瑞祥
Owner 长沙岁峰健康科技有限公司
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