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Rainfall forecast index correction method and system

A correction method and index technology, applied in the field of rainfall forecast index correction, can solve problems such as poor correction effect and poor universality, and achieve the effect of excellent correction effect, improved accuracy and good universality

Active Publication Date: 2020-01-03
CHINA ELECTRIC POWER RES INST +2
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  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0005] In order to overcome the shortcomings of poor correction effect and poor universality in the prior art, the present invention proposes a method and system for correcting rainfall forecast index

Method used

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  • Rainfall forecast index correction method and system
  • Rainfall forecast index correction method and system
  • Rainfall forecast index correction method and system

Examples

Experimental program
Comparison scheme
Effect test

Embodiment 1

[0049] A schematic flow chart of a rainfall forecast index correction method provided by the present invention is as follows: figure 1 shown, including:

[0050] Step 1: Divide the collected and predicted rainfall according to the set time interval;

[0051] Step 2: Correct the predicted rainfall according to the set time interval based on the pre-established rainfall forecast index correction model;

[0052] The correction model of rainfall forecast index includes: the correction formula of rainfall forecast index based on time interval.

[0053] Among them, the establishment of the rainfall forecast index correction model is as follows: figure 2 shown, including:

[0054] Step 101: Collect the measured rainfall in the historical period and the predicted rainfall corresponding to the measured rainfall, represented by P j Indicates the jth measured rainfall, represented by P' j means P j The corresponding forecast rainfall.

[0055] Step 102: Divide the historical measur...

Embodiment 2

[0076] In order to illustrate the application of the present invention in the forecasted rainfall correction of 0-24h before the day and a time resolution of 15min, the following is given image 3 Example shown.

[0077] Assume that both the measured rainfall samples and the predicted rainfall samples are x, the number of days used for statistics is D, and the measured rainfall is P x , the predicted rainfall is P' x .

[0078] Step 201: Basic data statistics of measured rainfall.

[0079] Divide x measured rainfall into m intervals, and count the frequency of samples in the i-th interval, that is, the ratio f(P i ) and the average historical measured rainfall avg(P i ), 1≤i≤m, Σf(P i )=1.

[0080] Step 202: Calculate the absolute error of rainfall.

[0081] The absolute error of the forecast at 96 time points on a historical day is equal to the predicted rainfall P' every 15 minutes j and the measured value P j The absolute value of the difference, that is, error j ...

Embodiment 3

[0096] Based on the same inventive concept, the present invention also provides a rainfall forecast index correction system. Since the principle of these devices to solve technical problems is similar to the rainfall forecast index correction method, the repetition will not be repeated.

[0097] The system as Figure 4 shown, including:

[0098] Data division module and rainfall correction module;

[0099]Wherein, the data division module is used to divide the collected and predicted rainfall according to the set time interval;

[0100] The rainfall correction module, based on the pre-established rainfall forecast index correction model, corrects the predicted rainfall according to the set time interval;

[0101] The correction model of rainfall forecast index includes: the correction formula of rainfall forecast index based on time interval.

[0102] The detailed structure of the rainfall forecast index correction system is as follows: Figure 5 As shown, wherein, the sys...

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Abstract

The invention provides a rainfall forecast index correction method and system. The rainfall forecast index correction method comprises the steps that collected and predicted rainfall is divided according to set time intervals; and based on a pre-established rainfall forecast index correction model, the predicted rainfall is corrected according to a set time interval. According to the method and the system, the collected and predicted rainfall is divided according to a set time interval, and a pre-established rainfall forecast index correction model is used to correct the predicted rainfall according to a set time interval; the rainfall forecasting accuracy is improved, the influence factors causing various error characteristics in the historical time period are covered, the correction effect is good, and good universality is achieved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of renewable energy power generation, and in particular relates to a method and system for correcting a rainfall forecast index. Background technique [0002] The pursuit of short-term and medium-term hydrological forecasting and flood forecasting is high precision and long forecast period. To obtain high-precision and long-term forecast, it is necessary to start from improving the precision of rainfall estimation. way to achieve. The combination of meteorological forecast and hydrological forecast brings great advantages and necessity to work such as flood control and reservoir operation, and is an inevitable trend in the development of hydrological forecast. [0003] With the popularization and application of modern technologies such as computer network, geographic information system (GIS), remote sensing, and numerical weather prediction in the field of hydrological forecasting, as well as the continuous...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06F17/18
CPCG06Q10/04G06F17/18Y02A90/10
Inventor 丁煌程序王知嘉陈卫东周海丁杰崔方李登宣朱想吴骥秦昊彭佩佩丛从
Owner CHINA ELECTRIC POWER RES INST
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