Shale gas well staged fracturing effect evaluation and yield prediction method based on random forest

Abstract

The invention discloses a shale gas well staged fracturing effect evaluation and yield prediction method based on a random forest. The method comprises the steps of firstly, finding main fracturing and geological influence factors influencing the section yield through a Pearson correlation coefficient and a secondary dimension reduction strategy of a recursive feature elimination method; establishing a random forest model based on optimized influence factors, analyzing the gain degree of the main fracturing factors to the section yield by using the model, and finishing fracturing effect evaluation and yield prediction. The calculation method is simple, and the method is advanced. The microstructure of reservoir rock is very complex and irregular, large-scale fracturing is carried out, it is difficult for a traditional theory to combine complex and numerous fracturing parameters and geological parameters together to establish a nonlinear equation, and the historical fitting difficulty in a numerical simulation method is large. And important yield influence factors can be identified by adopting the secondary dimension reduction strategy and a random forest algorithm, and yield prediction can be well carried out.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the evaluation of the staged fracturing effect of shale gas wells, in particular to a method for evaluating the effect of staged fracturing of shale gas wells and predicting production based on random forests. Background technique [0002] Since my country's shale gas has been put into large-scale fracturing development and achieved gratifying results, shale gas, as an unconventional oil and gas resource, has gradually become the main force to solve the problem of "gas shortage" in my country. Due to the heterogeneity of unconventional oil and gas reservoirs, the production of horizontal wells varies greatly among sections. The statistics of several major shale gas blocks in the United States show that about 1 / 3 of the perforated holes in the fractured gas wells have no production [1], 60% of the total gas production of a single well comes from 40% of the fracturing section. Conventional analysis methods show that the dependenc...

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Problems solved by technology

The analytical method to solve the production rate cannot meet the needs of real complex shale reservoirs because the considerations are too ideal

Although the numerical simulation method is becoming more and more perfect, the accuracy of production prediction can be pursued by establishing a continuously refined geological model and describing a complex dynamic model, but the data requirements are relatively high, and accurate reservoir data and fracturing construction data are needed. Complicated calculations and heavy workload

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