Prediction method for short-term output of distributed photovoltaic power generation system

A technology for distributed photovoltaic and power generation systems, applied in forecasting, neural learning methods, data processing applications, etc. The effect of improving prediction performance and high prediction accuracy

CN111008728AActive Publication Date: 2020-04-14SHENZHEN POWER SUPPLY BUREAU
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Patent Information

Authority / Receiving Office
CN · China
Patent Type
Applications(China)
Current Assignee / Owner
Publication Date
2020-04-14

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Abstract

The invention provides a prediction method for the short-term output of a distributed photovoltaic power generation system. The method comprises the steps: S1, collecting the historical output data, atmospheric temperature data and solar irradiation data of the distributed photovoltaic power generation system, and carrying out the normalization preprocessing of the data; S2, establishing a first prediction model based on an extreme learning machine (ELM) by using a multi-model univariate prediction method, and carrying out preliminary prediction on a to-be-predicted day; and S3, establishing asecond prediction model based on a long-term and short-term memory (LSTM) deep learning network by using a single-model multivariable prediction method, and correcting the result of the first prediction model in combination with the historical data to obtain a final photovoltaic output prediction result. With implementation of the method, the prediction precision and the adaptability can be improved.
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Description

technical field

[0001] The invention belongs to the field of energy power forecasting, and more specifically relates to a forecasting method for short-term output of a distributed photovoltaic power generation system. Background technique

[0002] With the continuous consumption of global fossil energy, the development of new energy and the improvement of the utilization efficiency of renewable energy have become an important means to solve the problems of energy shortage and environmental pollution. Among many new energy sources, solar photovoltaic power generation has been widely used due to its clean, high-efficiency and many other excellent properties, and has developed rapidly in recent years.

[0003] With the development of smart grids, the construction of large-scale distributed photovoltaic power generation systems has become an important solution to fully consume solar energy resources and alleviate the pressure of power grid peak regulation. Distributed photovolt...

Examples

Embodiment Construction

[0063] The following will clearly and completely describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention with reference to the accompanying drawings in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only some, not all, embodiments of the present invention.

[0064] In order to make those skilled in the art more clearly understand the purpose, technical solutions and advantages of the invention, the invention will be further elaborated below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and embodiments.

[0065] Such as figure 1 As shown, it shows a structural schematic diagram of an embodiment of a method for predicting short-term output of a distributed photovoltaic power generation system provided by the present invention, combined with Figure 2 to Figure 8 As shown, in the implementation of the present invention, the method includes the following steps:

[0066] Step S1: Collect historical output data, atmospheric t...