Prediction method for short-term output of distributed photovoltaic power generation system

Abstract

The invention provides a prediction method for the short-term output of a distributed photovoltaic power generation system. The method comprises the steps: S1, collecting the historical output data, atmospheric temperature data and solar irradiation data of the distributed photovoltaic power generation system, and carrying out the normalization preprocessing of the data; S2, establishing a first prediction model based on an extreme learning machine (ELM) by using a multi-model univariate prediction method, and carrying out preliminary prediction on a to-be-predicted day; and S3, establishing asecond prediction model based on a long-term and short-term memory (LSTM) deep learning network by using a single-model multivariable prediction method, and correcting the result of the first prediction model in combination with the historical data to obtain a final photovoltaic output prediction result. With implementation of the method, the prediction precision and the adaptability can be improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of energy power forecasting, and more specifically relates to a forecasting method for short-term output of a distributed photovoltaic power generation system. Background technique [0002] With the continuous consumption of global fossil energy, the development of new energy and the improvement of the utilization efficiency of renewable energy have become an important means to solve the problems of energy shortage and environmental pollution. Among many new energy sources, solar photovoltaic power generation has been widely used due to its clean, high-efficiency and many other excellent properties, and has developed rapidly in recent years. [0003] With the development of smart grids, the construction of large-scale distributed photovoltaic power generation systems has become an important solution to fully consume solar energy resources and alleviate the pressure of power grid peak regulation. Distributed photovolt...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0005] In the existing technology, there are methods such as artificial neural network and support vector machine for the prediction of short-term photovoltaic output. However, the disadvantage of the existing technology is that the use of a single prediction method often leads to unstable prediction results. The prediction accuracy is not good; in addition, when the weather conditions change greatly, these methods have insufficient prediction accuracy

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