Man-machine interaction system task reliability modeling method considering path dependence effect

Abstract

The invention provides a man-machine interaction system task reliability modeling method considering a path dependence effect, and the method comprises the following steps: (1) analyzing a man-machineinteraction system task profile, and recognizing main factors causing all function faults of a system; (2) proposing a man-machine interaction system task reliability modeling method, and establishing a system task reliability model by adopting a Bayesian network (BN) method; (3) for factors which may cause human errors, locally correcting the system task reliability model, and endowing the modelwith a conditional probability table based on a path dependence condition; and (4) calculating a system task success probability. According to the method, the task reliability characteristics of theman-machine interaction system with the path dependence effect can be accurately described, so that the established task reliability model is more accurate.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a task reliability modeling method of a human-computer interaction system considering path-dependent effects, and belongs to the technical field of system task reliability. Background technique [0002] With the advancement of science and technology and the improvement of application requirements, complex engineering systems (such as manned spacecraft, space stations, reusable aircraft, etc.) use a large number of high-tech or high-energy materials (such as composite materials, nuclear materials), and work in high-risk environments (such as Space environment, re-entry atmosphere), various complex functions need to be realized, reliability work faces new requirements, and reliability modeling faces new challenges. [0003] Task reliability and security of human-computer interaction system include two aspects: personnel planning tasks safely and reliably and executing agencies completing tasks safely and reliably. Therefore, whe...

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Problems solved by technology

On the contrary, it may become an important cause of failure or even catastrophic consequences

[0005] When traditional reliability modeling methods are used for fault tree analysis of complex systems, due to the limitations of the method itself, such as assuming that each component is independent and the state is binary, the effect is greatly reduced, and it cannot accurately reflect the original nature of things. face, and can't even characterize certain models

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