Rainfall forecast correction method and system based on ensemble forecast

An ensemble forecasting and scheme technology, applied in weather forecasting, measuring devices, instruments, etc., can solve problems such as methods without standards and certainty

Active Publication Date: 2020-06-09
CHINA ELECTRIC POWER RES INST +2
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  • Summary
  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

However, the numerical value of the specific correction is mostly determined by human experience, and there is no uniform standard and deterministic method

Method used

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  • Rainfall forecast correction method and system based on ensemble forecast
  • Rainfall forecast correction method and system based on ensemble forecast
  • Rainfall forecast correction method and system based on ensemble forecast

Examples

Experimental program
Comparison scheme
Effect test

Embodiment 1

[0071] like figure 1 A correction method for precipitation forecast based on ensemble forecast is shown, including:

[0072] S1 Determine the forecast members participating in the revision through the parameterization scheme of the ensemble forecast members according to the rainfall type;

[0073] S2 selects the training period data and the sliding period data from the historical data according to the rainfall type and the forecast members;

[0074] S3 builds a revised model based on the training period data;

[0075] S4 Correct the sliding period data based on the correction model, and determine the precipitation forecast according to the correction result.

[0076] Specific as figure 2 shown

[0077] S1 Determine the forecast members participating in the revision through the parameterization scheme of the ensemble forecast members according to the rainfall type;

[0078] Classify the precipitation types, and select the forecast members with appropriate parameterization...

Embodiment 2

[0104] A correction method for precipitation forecast based on ensemble forecast can be implemented and applied through the following steps:

[0105] (1) At present, the parameterization scheme adopted by the National 3km Operational Forecasting Model of the Numerical Weather Prediction Center of China Electric Power Research Institute is set to GFS_WCTRL, so as to obtain a deterministic national precipitation forecast, and the results of the ensemble forecast will be used to correct this operation forecast results of the program. In the national 9km ensemble forecast system, according to different WRF parameterization schemes, there are 12 types of schemes as follows:

[0106] The conventional convection adjustment operational scheme 'WCBMJ', the multi-parameter closed cumulus sub-grid scheme 'WCG3D', the high-resolution land surface sub-grid scheme 'WMTHO', the local urban underlying surface small-scale scheme 'WPBOU', considering complex Research experiment scheme 'WPGBM' ...

Embodiment 3

[0115] Based on the same inventive concept, the present invention also provides a precipitation forecast correction system based on ensemble forecasting, including:

[0116] Determination module: used to determine the forecast members participating in the correction through the parameterization scheme of the ensemble forecast members according to the rainfall type;

[0117] Corrected model building module: used to build a revised model based on the training period data;

[0118] Judgment module: used to determine whether the correction model needs to be used to forecast precipitation for the sliding period based on the correction result of the sliding period forecast data and the forecast result of the correction model before the correction of the sliding period forecast data Make corrections.

[0119] The determination module includes: a parameterization scheme determination sub-module, a forecast member determination sub-module;

[0120] The parameterization scheme include...

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Abstract

The invention relates to a rainfall forecasting correction method based on ensemble forecasting. The method is characterized by comprising steps of determining forecasting members participating in correction through a parameterization scheme of ensemble forecasting members according to rainfall types; selecting training period data and sliding period data from historical data according to the rainfall types and the forecasting member; constructing a correction model based on the training period data; and correcting the sliding period data based on a correction model, and determining rainfall forecast according to the correction result. The method is advantaged in that errors caused by manual rainfall numerical value correction are effectively reduced, post-correction processing of the rainfall forecasting result is conducted through an error elimination method for existing rainfall forecasting data on the basis of the ensemble forecasting result at the current forecasting level, and availability of the forecasting data is maximized.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of disaster prevention and mitigation of power grids, in particular to a method and system for correcting precipitation forecasts based on ensemble forecasts. Background technique [0002] In the context of global warming and frequent extreme weather events, extreme weather disasters such as heavy rainfall, typhoon, high temperature and heat waves and their secondary disasters have a serious impact on the planning, construction, dispatching and operation of the power grid; especially heavy rainfall and its secondary disasters will It has an important impact on the safe operation of the power grid. On July 21, 2012, Beijing ushered in a heavy rainstorm. The average precipitation in the urban area was 215mm, and the precipitation in one town reached 460mm. Continuous heavy rainfall caused a large-scale power outage in the 110kV substation. The torrential rain disaster caused an impact on the power grid, and both 220kV...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G01W1/10G01W1/18
CPCG01W1/10G01W1/18
Inventor 张周祥滑申冰宋宗朋冯双磊王勃王伟胜刘纯胡菊刘晓琳马振强王姝靳双龙
Owner CHINA ELECTRIC POWER RES INST
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