A method and system for generating typical wind power scene sets

A wind power and scene technology, applied in wind power generation, electrical components, circuit devices, etc., to achieve the effect of improving timing

Active Publication Date: 2022-03-11
HEFEI UNIV OF TECH
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Problems solved by technology

[0004] In order to solve the deficiencies in the above-mentioned prior art, the present invention proposes a method and system for generating typical wind power scene sets, in order to describe the probability distribution of prediction errors under different predicted output amplitudes of wind power, and generate classic wind power scene sets to describe wind power. The various possibilities of output can make up for the lack of accuracy of the existing wind power output forecast to a certain extent, thus providing data support for the safe and stable operation of the power grid

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  • A method and system for generating typical wind power scene sets
  • A method and system for generating typical wind power scene sets
  • A method and system for generating typical wind power scene sets

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Embodiment Construction

[0057] In this example, if figure 1 As shown, a generation method based on the wind power classic scene set includes the following steps:

[0058] Step 1. Build and number adaptive prediction boxes;

[0059] The division principles of the traditional prediction box include equal interval division and equal quantity division, which cannot achieve the balance between interval length and fitting accuracy. The adaptive prediction box can solve the problems existing in the traditional prediction box. The modeling process of the adaptive prediction box is as follows: figure 2 shown;

[0060] In step 1.1, the predicted output data and the corresponding forecast error data at the same time in the historical data are formed into each data pair, and each data pair is arranged in ascending order according to the amplitude of the predicted output data, and the length of the interval is set to 100MW. The interval prediction box division method divides the data pairs into H=183 groups, a...

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Abstract

The present invention provides a generation method and system based on a wind power typical scene set. The steps of the method include: 1. Construct an adaptive prediction box and number it; 2. Fit the probability distribution of the prediction error data in the prediction box; 3. Generate Wind power static scene set; 4. Use tabu search algorithm to generate wind power dynamic scene set; 5. Assign weight to wind power dynamic scene set; 6. Cluster and reduce wind power dynamic scene set to obtain wind power typical scene set. The invention can describe various possibilities of wind power output, and to a certain extent, compensates for the problem of insufficient prediction accuracy of the existing wind power output, thereby providing data support for safe and stable operation of the power grid.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention relates to wind power output uncertainty modeling, specifically a method and system for generating a typical scene set of wind power output, which is used to describe the various possibilities of wind power output sequences in several hours in the future, and gives the appearance of various sequences The probability. Background technique [0002] With the depletion of traditional fossil energy, new energy generation represented by wind power and photovoltaic power generation occupies an increasingly important position in the power system. Due to the influence of weather factors and geographical location, the output of wind power has randomness, volatility and intermittency. However, the existing wind power forecasting output technology only gives one situation of wind power output, and there is a problem in the prediction accuracy. Bottleneck, insufficient consideration of the uncertainty of wind power, which brings unstable fact...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06H02J3/00H02J3/38
CPCH02J3/004H02J3/381H02J2203/20H02J2300/28Y02E10/76
Inventor 丁明汪柳兵毕锐
Owner HEFEI UNIV OF TECH
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