A Fuzzy Forecasting Method of Ship Short-term Traffic Flow Based on Chaos Theory

Abstract

The invention discloses a fuzzy prediction method for short-term traffic flow of ships based on chaos theory, which includes: constructing the division mode of the navigation zone, collecting AIS data of MMSI code, real-time latitude and longitude, channel speed difference, and occupancy rate, and predicting Processing and analysis; use the wolf method to calculate the AIS data, determine the Lyapunov index of the ship traffic flow, and analyze the chaotic characteristics; use the takens theorem to realize the phase space reconstruction of the chaotic time series, and obtain the basis of forecasting data; compare different forecasting theories The model uses the support vector regression model (SVR) to predict; the algorithm of fuzzy structural elements is used to calculate the ambiguity function of the data points of the prediction results, and together with the predicted values, the fuzzy prediction results of the short-term ship traffic flow are constructed. In the present invention, the collection of AIS data of channel speed difference and lane occupancy rate, and the fuzzy prediction algorithm based on the fuzzy structural element method can comprehensively include the information characteristics of real ship traffic flow, and improve the accuracy of short-term ship prediction.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of ship traffic flow prediction, in particular to a fuzzy prediction method for short-term ship traffic flow based on chaos theory. Background technique [0002] With the continuous deepening of economic globalization and the deepening of trade cooperation among countries, the number of ships has also continued to increase, resulting in a rapid increase in ship traffic in many important waterways. Traffic flow is the best embodiment of the state of ship movement, the main reference for maximizing the benefits of water transportation facilities, formulating shipping development strategies, and rationally utilizing resources, and an important reference for the construction scale of water transportation facilities. By quantitatively or visually analyzing the traffic flow rules of ships in important voyages, it provides a powerful means and method for evaluating the passage capacity, organizational and managemen...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0005] Although ship traffic flow is affected by many uncertain factors, such as sea conditions, traffic accidents, economic situation, etc., there are fundamental factors that have been playing a leading role in the long-term trend of frequent fluctuations in ship traffic flow, that is to say , the change of ship traffic flow has a certain trend, and is affected by many uncertain factors, and this effect makes the ship traffic flow fluctuate greatly, which cannot be ignored

However, although some uncertain factors are also considered in the currently commonly used forecasting algorithms, they all give accurate predictions of ship traffic flow, which is not in line with the actual situation of ship movement, so the trend prediction of ship traffic flow is given is more reasonable

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