Regional power grid voltage reactive day-ahead forecasting method based on load forecasting

Abstract

The invention provides a regional power grid voltage reactive day-ahead forecasting method based on load forecasting, and belongs to the technical field of power system voltage reactive forecasting. The method comprises the following steps: acquiring system load prediction data of the next day and section data of each moment of the whole day of a historical reference day, and obtaining a load set capable of bearing system load change and an adjustable unit set of each section; and then decomposing load prediction data at corresponding moments in proportion, updating active and reactive power of each load and active power of each unit, and further updating a load flow calculation result of each section and taking the load flow calculation result as a reactive voltage prediction result of all moments of the next day. According to the method, by combining the characteristics of the regional power grid, the day-ahead power flow forecasting calculation of the regional power grid can be carried out by utilizing the day-ahead system load forecasting of the regional power grid and combining the power grid structure and the power flow calculation result of the reference day, and the voltage reactive day-ahead forecasting power flow result of the regional power grid is solved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of electric power system voltage and reactive power forecasting, in particular to a method for forecasting regional power grid voltage and reactive power ahead of time based on load forecasting. Background technique [0002] In the operation of the power system, in order to facilitate the arrangement of the power grid operation mode in advance, the dispatcher needs to prepare the power grid operation plan for the upcoming tomorrow in advance every day, that is, prepare the operation plan for the day ahead. The day-ahead operation plan is an important basis for power grid dispatching, and a reasonable day-ahead dispatching operation plan is related to the safe and economical operation of the system in the future. With the expansion of the power grid scale and the complexity of the operation mode, the safety check of the day-ahead plan based on the DC power flow in the past can no longer meet the actual needs,...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

First of all, the power supply of the regional power grid mainly comes from the external power grid. For example, the off-grid power of the main transformer medium voltage side of some 500kV substations connected to the regional power grid is the main power supply source of the regional power grid; There are fewer generator sets, and the power output of these units is generally not enough to meet the power load consumption of the regional power grid; and regional power grids are often not equipped with special planning and professional bus load forecasting, Subdivided plan forecasting data such as unit power generation plans can generally only provide system load forecasting of data at 96 time points at intervals of 15 minutes throughout the day in the local power grid

Therefore, the existing regional power grid voltage and reactive power forecast methods do not effectively deal with the system load forecast in the regional power grid, and because the data quality is often not perfect in the regional power grid, only the interior point method is used to solve the optimization sub-problem. will lead to poor convergence

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