Emergency evacuation system and method for people in key area based on traffic flow model

A traffic flow model and key area technology, applied in the field of road traffic planning, can solve problems such as the prediction time of the error prediction model, and achieve the effects of accurate prediction, short time consumption and accurate results

Active Publication Date: 2021-06-25
SHENZHEN URBAN TRANSPORT PLANNING CENT
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AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0007] In order to solve the problems of obvious errors in the traffic demand simulation process in the prior art and the long prediction time of the existing forecasting model, the present invention proposes a system and method for emergency evacuation of people in key areas based on the traffic flow model, and the scheme is as follows:

Method used

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  • Emergency evacuation system and method for people in key area based on traffic flow model
  • Emergency evacuation system and method for people in key area based on traffic flow model
  • Emergency evacuation system and method for people in key area based on traffic flow model

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specific Embodiment approach 1

[0051] Embodiment 1: An emergency evacuation system for people in key areas based on a traffic flow model, the system includes a real-time people flow monitoring and early warning layer and a scheduling plan determination layer for traffic demand prediction; wherein the real-time people flow monitoring and early warning layer includes a people flow data acquisition module , Decision tree classification module and crowd flow early warning module, each module is connected in sequence to monitor the real-time crowd flow, early warning personnel emergency evacuation;

[0052] The scheduling plan determination layer includes traffic demand forecasting module, traffic distribution forecasting module, traffic mode division module and vehicle scheduling module; each module is connected in sequence for traffic behavior prediction and division, and completes vehicle scheduling with the early warning results of the crowd monitoring and early warning layer.

[0053] The crowd flow data col...

specific Embodiment approach 2

[0055] Specific implementation mode 2: An emergency evacuation method for people in key areas based on a traffic flow model, which realizes real-time crowd flow monitoring and early warning. The implementation process is as follows:

[0056] Access to real-time people flow data can realize real-time people flow monitoring in key areas, compare real-time people flow and people flow warning threshold, if the threshold is exceeded, the dispatching plan will be triggered. The early warning threshold of crowd flow in each key area can be constructed by constructing a simple Decision tree learning model derived.

[0057] The CART algorithm consists of the following two steps:

[0058] Decision tree generation: Generate a decision tree based on the training data set, and the generated decision tree should be as large as possible;

[0059] Decision tree pruning: Use the verification data set to prune the generated tree and select the optimal subtree. At this time, the minimum loss ...

specific Embodiment approach 3

[0077] Specific implementation mode 3: In addition to the real-time crowd monitoring and early warning layer described in specific implementation mode 2 to predict the traffic demand for emergency evacuation of early warning personnel, this embodiment can perform emergency evacuation early warning from traffic behavior prediction and division. The specific implementation process is as follows:

[0078] (1) Traffic demand forecast:

[0079] When the number of people reaches the early warning, the short-term people flow prediction model based on LightGBM is used to obtain the change of people flow in the next 2 hours, and the maximum number of people is taken as the evacuation flow, that is, the traffic demand. The main flow design of the short-term crowd flow prediction algorithm based on the LightGBM model is as follows:

[0080] Step1: Build the feature engineering of the predictive model;

[0081] Step2: Do the corresponding data preprocessing work according to the indicato...

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Abstract

The invention provides an emergency evacuation system and method for people in a key area based on a traffic flow model, particularly relates to an emergency early warning and evacuation method for people in the key area, belongs to the field of road traffic planning. and aims to solve the problems that in the prior art, obvious errors exist in the traffic demand simulation process, and an existing prediction model is long in prediction time. The system comprises a real-time people flow monitoring and early warning layer and a scheduling scheme determination layer for traffic demand prediction. Real-time people flow data are accessed to realize real-time people flow monitoring in key areas, real-time people flow and people flow early warning thresholds are compared, and if the thresholds are exceeded, a scheduling scheme is triggered. The people flow early warning threshold value of each key area can be obtained by constructing a simple decision tree learning model; According to the method, massive historical data can be processed, correlation analysis of various traffic characteristics is supported, and the influence of various factors on travel demands of people is reflected more truly; and the model established based on a decision tree has the characteristics of simple algorithm and accurate prediction.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to an emergency early warning and evacuation method for crowds in key areas, in particular to a system and method for emergency evacuation of people in key areas based on a traffic flow model, which belongs to the field of road traffic planning. Background technique [0002] Beijing University of Technology compiled the "Olympic Traffic Simulation System Research", which established the Olympic traffic simulation system from the micro, meso and macro perspectives, so as to deeply study the traffic operation characteristics during the Olympic Games. Dr. Chen Fei collected and sorted out the experience of transportation planning in large-scale events at home and abroad over the years, analyzed the characteristics of traffic demand that are common in large-scale events, and proposed three comprehensive types of planning, construction, and management that are consistent with the characteristics of traffic demand for large-scale events....

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06F30/27G06N20/00
CPCG06N20/00G06F30/27
Inventor 张晓春丘建栋庄立坚徐若辰陈昶佳唐先马
Owner SHENZHEN URBAN TRANSPORT PLANNING CENT
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