Proxy optimization calibration method for large-scale hydrological model time-varying parameters

Abstract

The invention provides a proxy optimization calibration method for time-varying parameters of a large-scale hydrological model, and the method comprises the steps: selecting a distributed hydrological model, building a model with a drainage basin as a research object, and screening out sensitive parameters; in combination with the determined sensitive parameter values, verifying a model according to actual measurement data of the key indexes related to the sensitive parameter values, and performing numerical simulation of a long-time sequence after verification; counting key index analog quantities under different time scales and corresponding annual actual measurements based on the simulation results; dividing the long-time sequence into a plurality of segments; setting correction factors of empirical values of the sensitive parameters and establishing a proxy optimization calibration model; selecting a proper evaluation index to calibrate the correction factors to obtain posterior distribution of the correction factors in different seasons; and correcting the empirical values of the sensitive parameters by using correction factors to obtain variable parameter values under the seasonal scale, and comparing the variable parameter values with simulation precision. According to the method, rapid calibration of the large-scale model parameters is realized, and the problems of time consumption and low efficiency of large-scale model parameter calibration are solved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of hydrological models, and in particular relates to a proxy optimization calibration method for time-varying parameters of large-scale hydrological models. Background technique [0002] A hydrological model is a mathematical model established based on the movement of rainfall and runoff within a watershed. It can numerically simulate complex hydrological processes and is an important tool for understanding the temporal and spatial changes of the hydrological cycle under the influence of climate change and human activities. [0003] Due to the extremely complex physical processes of precipitation and runoff, traditional lumped hydrological models often simplify the assumptions of these processes by setting conceptual parameters, and adjust model performance by calibrating parameters. However, lumped hydrological models cannot reflect the spatial variability of hydrological processes within a watershed, so di...

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Problems solved by technology

[0006] The purpose of the present invention is to provide a proxy optimization calibration method for time-varying parameters of large-scale hydrological models, which solves the time-consuming and low-efficiency problem of large-scale model parameter calibration, and obtains The parameter values ​​with time-varying characteristics are obtained, which can adapt to the hydrological simulation under the changing environment

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