Urban energy supply reliability monitoring method considering heat supply network delay and resident bearing capacity

Abstract

The invention discloses an urban energy supply reliability monitoring method considering heat supply network delay and resident bearing capacity, and the method comprises the steps: constructing an urban energy system quasi-steady-state model according to the structure and initial operation conditions of an urban energy system; in combination with an urban energy system structure and a state enumeration technology, acquiring a system fault state space set required by urban energy supply reliability monitoring; inputting the conditions before and after the fault of the heat supply system into the quasi-steady state simulation model of the urban energy system to obtain the states before and after the fault of the electricity-gas-heat system and the temperature change process of the heat supply system and the building; according to the comfort degree and the safety constraint of the human body on the indoor temperature of the building, a generalized load loss subsection metering weight is constructed, and the equivalent load loss fusing energy supply and the human body temperature acceptance degree is calculated; and in combination with different fault occurrence probabilities and load losses, calculating a reliability index, i.e., expected energy shortage service. According to the invention, the reliability monitoring precision and the reasonability of the result are improved, and the deficiency of user life safety consideration under the influence of a low-temperature environment in the traditional urban energy supply reliability monitoring is filled.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of urban energy systems, in particular to a method for monitoring the reliability of urban energy supply taking into account heat network delay and residents' tolerance. Background technique [0002] As the energy transition progresses, the proportion of combined heat and power and electrically driven heat sources (such as electric boilers) in urban energy supply continues to increase, which has led to an increase in the integration of different energy systems. While the integration of multi-energy systems represented by electricity / gas / heat energy improves energy efficiency, the interaction between different systems also brings many new problems to urban energy services. [0003] The variation of energy supply reliability is one of the important issues affected by the integration of energy systems mentioned above. On the one hand, the coordinated operation of multi-energy systems can realize multi-system mutual aid ...

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Problems solved by technology

As a result, the potential reliability of the energy supply system has dropped significantly during the fault recovery process. This nonlinear change process has not been effectively considered in the existing reliability monitoring technology.

[0006] With the application and popularization of multi-energy coupling devices such as combined heat and power generation, the level of interaction between urban power, gas and heating systems continues to increase, and the failure of any one system may affect the energy supply of all other systems. And the heating system whose flow depends on dynamic characteristics has more complex behavior, and the impact on users due to heat load loss will change nonlinearly with temperature drop

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