Seismic surface fracture permanent displacement estimation method based on Mindlin solution

Abstract

The invention relates to a Mindlin solution-based earthquake ground surface fracture permanent displacement estimation method. The method comprises the following steps of 1, determining a potential source of an area where an active fault is located and the maximum magnitude Mu of the potential source in combination with data; 2, setting the magnitude and epicentral distance of the earthquake by adopting a maximum probability method; 3, fault model parameters are determined; and 4, on the basis of the determined fault model parameters, establishing a finite seismic source model based on a Mindlin solution, and applying the finite seismic source model to seismic surface permanent displacement estimation. According to the method, a fault model and potential source region parameters of a Chinese fourth-generation seismic zoning map are fully utilized, an earthquake risk analysis method is combined, a Mindlin solution is applied to estimation of the seismic surface permanent displacement, and a seismic surface permanent displacement field near a seismic fault is subjected to numerical simulation.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method for estimating permanent displacement of earthquake surface rupture based on Mindlin solution. Background technique [0002] Earthquake damage surveys show that near-field structural damage is not only caused by earthquakes, but also by surface ruptures. Although the location of the earthquake is uncertain, moderately strong earthquakes often occur on the main fault, and 94% of the magnitude 8 earthquakes occurred on the main fault, 87% of the magnitude 7 earthquakes, and 76% of the magnitude 6 earthquakes. Therefore, the focus of research on seismic surface rupture falls on active faults. In recent years, the Wenchuan Earthquake, the Jiji Earthquake, the Kunlun Pass Earthquake, and the Izmit Earthquake in Turkey have all caused large-scale surface ruptures, which may affect roads, bridges, tunnels, dams, and oil (gas) transportation. Large-scale projects such as pipeline networks and communication cables caused seri...

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Problems solved by technology

However, it must be recognized that even considering homogeneous media, analysis methods based on dynamics are extremely difficult, and many basic data are unclear, such as: the determination of the loading boundary of tectonic stress; the structural structure (especially structural plane) of deep rock mass and its geometry Characteristics and strength distribution; dynamic failure strength of geotechnical materials and interfaces; cracking and crack growth criteria (strain discontinuity, displacement discontinuity initiation and evolution criteria); long-term prediction of earthquake prediction has high reliability, short-term prediction is still poor

Therefore, at this stage, the extent of near-field seismic surface rupture in terms of deterministic analysis dynamics is immature

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