Ecological niche model-based echinococcus multilocularis natural epidemic origin grading prediction method

Abstract

The invention discloses an echinococcus multilocularis natural epidemic origin grading prediction method based on an ecological niche model. The method comprises the steps that S1, echinococcus multilocularis natural epidemic origin monitoring point data and geographical environment data are acquired; s2, performing logistic regression analysis on the geographical environment data, and screening out geographical environment risk factor data; establishing an ecological niche model according to the screened geographical environment risk factors; s3, dividing monitoring point data into a training set and a test set; s4, inputting the training set into an ecological niche model and detecting to obtain the relative importance of each environmental risk factor variable in the natural epidemic origin of echinococcus multilocularis; and S5, analyzing the test set based on the ecological niche model processed in the S4, and outputting the epidemic distribution condition of the natural epidemic source of the echinococcus multilocularis. According to the geographical environment risk factors, the method can perform corresponding grading and qualification on the epidemic area of the natural epidemic origin of the echinococcus multilocularis, and fills the blank in the technical field of prediction of the propagation risk of the echinococcus multilocularis in China.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of Echinococcus multilocularis transmission risk, in particular to a method for predicting the prevalence of E. multilocularis natural foci based on an ecological niche model. Background technique [0002] At present, natural foci of alveolar hydatid disease are formed by natural selection through long-term interaction between the environment-Echinococcus multilocularis-host under certain geographical conditions. Echinococcus is preserved by cycling through specific ecosystems in natural foci. The typical life cycle of Echinococcus multilocularis, the pathogen of alveolar echinococcosis, is a wild cycle consisting of fox-dominated canines as the final host and rodents as the intermediate host of various small mammals. [0003] However, the natural foci of alveolar hydatid disease are complex in geography and ecological environment, with diverse climate types, and wild foxes and small mammals are widely dist...

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Problems solved by technology

[0003] However, the natural foci of alveolar echinococcosis have complex geographical and ecological environments, diverse climate types, and wild foxes and small mammals are widely distributed. Originally, Echinococcus multilocularis circulated among wild foxes and small mammals. Due to the large number of grazing dogs and the infestation of wolves in the natural foci of alveolar echinococcosis, and the severe rodent damage in this area, both grazing dogs and wolves have the habit of preying on wild rats and become the final hosts. Echinococcus multilocularis eggs in the foci are infected by mistake, which further increases the transmission of the intermediate host voles and the risk of human infection, resulting in the diversity of distribution and transmission of Echinococcus multilocularis in the natural foci

[0004] At present, there is no method for predicting the transmission risk of Echinococcus multilocularis natural foci in my country. Therefore, a method for grading the natural foci of Echinococcus multilocularis based on the niche model is established to realize the natural foci of Echinococcus multilocularis. Early prediction and early warning of the risk of coccidioides transmission is an urgent problem for those skilled in the art

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