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Wind speed modeling method for large-sized wind power plant in mountainous area

A technology for large-scale wind farms and modeling methods, which is applied in electrical digital data processing, special data processing applications, instruments, etc., and can solve problems such as inability to reflect truly and effectively

Inactive Publication Date: 2016-02-24
POWER GRID PLANNING RES INST OF GUIZHOU POWER GRID CO LTD
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  • Summary
  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0006] The technical problem to be solved by the present invention is to provide a wind speed modeling method for large-scale wind farms in mountainous areas, so as to solve the problem that the prior art cannot truly and effectively reflect the correlation of wind speeds inside wind farms in the wind speed modeling and prediction of large-scale wind farms in mountainous areas. this feature

Method used

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  • Wind speed modeling method for large-sized wind power plant in mountainous area
  • Wind speed modeling method for large-sized wind power plant in mountainous area
  • Wind speed modeling method for large-sized wind power plant in mountainous area

Examples

Experimental program
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Effect test

Embodiment 1

[0071] Example 1: Verification that Spearman rank correlation does not change the correlation of variables

[0072] Suppose there is a random sequence of wind speed v s1 , v S2 , the sampling time interval is 1min, and the total sampling time is 10min; the fan output characteristic curve is shown in figure 2 , using the piecewise fitting function formula (4), the cut-in wind speed is 3m / s, the cut-out wind speed is 25m / s, the rated wind speed is 14m / s, and the wind speed-power coefficient is 3; the wind speed sequence is brought into the fan output characteristics Fitting function to get fan output P W1 ,P W2 , the process is actually a monotonous nonlinear transformation of the wind speed random sequence.

[0073] Table 1 lists the wind speed sequence v S1 , v S2 And its rank R1, R2, fan output P W1 ,P W2 and its rank r1, r2, the linear correlation degree obtained for the wind speed sequence in Table 1 is 0.8726, and the linear correlation degree of fan output is 0.8...

Embodiment 2

[0076] Example 2: Using multivariate Copula functions to establish a related wind speed model for Guizhou Jiucaiping Wind Farm

[0077] Guizhou Jiucaiping Wind Farm is a large-scale wind farm in mountainous areas in Guizhou Province. The wind farm is about 45km away from Hezhang County, about 55km away from Liupanshui City, and about 150km away from Bijie City. The wind farm site area is in the shape of an irregular strip from southeast to northwest, about 16km long from east to west, 11km wide from north to south, and an area of ​​about 40km 2 . According to the actual measured data of the historical wind speed of each fan in the monthly typical days of the Jiucaiping Wind Farm from August 2012 to July 2013, the present invention adopts a multivariate normal Copula function to establish a related wind speed model of the wind farm. The wind farm has a total of 56 wind turbines, with a single unit capacity of 1.5MW and a total installed capacity of 84MW. In this modeling, ther...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a wind speed modeling method for a large-sized wind power plant in a mountainous area. The method comprises: 1, sampling historically recorded wind speed of the wind power plant, and calculating parameters c and k of wind speed Weibull distribution of each fan group of the wind power plant; 2, calculating a rank correlation coefficient Rho Rr of each fan group in the wind power plant, and constructing a historical wind speed rank correlation coefficient Rr of the wind power plant; 3, calculating related wind speed normal Copula functions of the wind power plant to obtain a joint probability distribution function, defined in the specification, of modeled and predicted wind speed with correlation, and edge probability distribution functions u1 to un of wind speed of fan groups; and 4, performing equiprobable reverse transformation of the Weibull distribution parameters c and k on the edge probability distribution functions of the wind speed of the fan groups to realize wind speed prediction. According to the method, the technical problem that a characteristic that wind speed in a wind power plant has correlation cannot be truly and effectively reflected, electric power distribution and safety operation of a power system are influenced due to direct influence of the correlation of the wind speed in the wind power plant on output of the wind power plant, and the like in the prior art are solved.

Description

Technical field: [0001] The invention belongs to the field of modeling of electric power system wind farms, and in particular relates to a method for modeling wind speeds of large-scale wind farms in mountainous areas. Background technique: [0002] Wind energy is a kind of green and clean energy, vigorously developing wind power is conducive to reducing fossil energy consumption and carbon emission levels. Do a good job in wind speed modeling and wind speed prediction, and get more accurate wind power prediction results, which can provide powerful help and related technical support for analyzing the impact of wind speed characteristics on power grid security and stability, wind power accommodation, and wind farm planning and site selection. [0003] The current wind speed modeling and prediction methods can be divided into two types based on physical models and based on historical data. The former generally uses numerical weather prediction data for wind speed prediction, ...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06F17/50G06F19/00
CPCY02E60/00
Inventor 刘文霞何向刚蒋泽甫钟以林李雪凌马冲皮显松吴方权王力立
Owner POWER GRID PLANNING RES INST OF GUIZHOU POWER GRID CO LTD
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