Wind power prediction method based on wind speed information and wind direction information

Abstract

The invention relates to a wind power prediction method based on the wind speed information and the wind direction information. The method comprises the steps of collecting and arranging the historical wind data of a wind power plant and the actual wind power output data, conducting the normalization pretreatment on the data as a training sample, then conducting the similarity analysis and the clustering analysis, and dividing data objects similar in characteristic attribute as one type, respectively calculating the cluster center for each type of data based on the k-means clustering algorithm, predicting an active power average value on a prediction day based on an auto-regressive model structure, constructing a model to establish different types of wind power prediction models with the combination of the active power average value with the data of wind speed and wind direction of each type jointly as the input and the actually measured active power data on the prediction day as the output, judging the type of normalized daily vectors highest in similarity on the prediction day, and obtaining the predicted wind power on the prediction day based on a wind power prediction model of the same type. The above method is high in prediction accuracy and high in reliability.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to wind power generation power forecasting technology, in particular to a wind power forecasting method based on wind speed and wind direction information. Background technique [0002] Wind energy is a typical non-polluting renewable energy. Because of its rich resources and the conditions for large-scale development, it has received extensive attention and has become the main form of future energy. The development and utilization of wind energy has become the most important renewable energy in China. direction of energy development. With the gradual increase of the cumulative installed capacity of wind power, the randomness and volatility of its power generation output have more and more obvious impacts on the balance of the grid after grid connection. In order to ensure the stable operation of the power grid and the reliability of the power supply system, the power supply system must be effectively planned and dispatched. Ther...

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Problems solved by technology

In order to ensure the stable operation of the power grid and the reliability of the power supply system, the power supply system must be effectively planned and dispatched. Therefore, it is necessary to accurately predict the power of wind power generation, which is directly related to the balance of supply and demand of the power grid, and also directly affects the grid-connected system. operating costs

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