Mud-rock flow early warning method based on rainfall-probability

A debris flow and rainfall technology, applied in rainfall/precipitation meters, alarms, measuring devices, etc., can solve the problems of inaccurate early warning and insufficient consideration of uncertainty problems.

Inactive Publication Date: 2017-05-10
INST OF MOUNTAIN HAZARDS & ENVIRONMENT CHINESE ACADEMY OF SCI
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Problems solved by technology

[0004] The purpose of the present invention is to provide a kind of mud-rock flow early-warning method based on rainfall-probability index for the deficiency of existing landslide early-warning single-factor technology. Insufficient consideration of uncertainty issues, resulting in inaccurate technical defects in early warning

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  • Mud-rock flow early warning method based on rainfall-probability
  • Mud-rock flow early warning method based on rainfall-probability
  • Mud-rock flow early warning method based on rainfall-probability

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Embodiment 1

[0102] Using the method provided by the invention, an example analysis of the debris flow early warning method based on the rainfall-probability index is carried out on the debris flow in Yindongzigou, Lianhe Village, Dujiangyan.

[0103] Step 1: On-the-spot investigation of the debris flow area of ​​Yindongzigou. The debris flow of Yindongzigou is located in the Baisha River Basin of Dujiangyan City, the episeismic area of ​​Wenchuan Earthquake. It is a typical landform of Zhongshan Canyon. The area of ​​the debris flow basin is 2.2km 2 , the length of the main ditch is 2.0km, and the whole basin is divided into clear water area, formation area, circulation area and accumulation area. After the Wenchuan earthquake, a debris flow began to erupt in Yindongzi ditch in August 2009, threatening 56 households in the post-disaster reconstruction resettlement site of Mizokou Lianhe Village. , the lives and properties of a population of 228 people are safe.

[0104] Determine the scop...

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Abstract

The present invention discloses a mud-rock flow early warning method based on the rainfall-probability, belonging to the mountainous region calamity field. According to the contingent probability theory of the generation of the mud-rock flow, a construction method of an early waning index system through combination of the probability of reflecting the nondeterminacy of the mud-rock flow and the rainfall formed by the mud-rock flow is realized through combination of the calculation determination of test and theory calculating of the critical rainfall of the generation of the mud-rock flow and the calculation of the rainfall condition probability. The theory method is reliable, the calculation is scientific and rapid, and the early warning index is clear to solve the critical value problem of the starting of the mud-rock flow induced by the rainfall and reflect the nondeterminacy in the formation and motion processes of the mud-rock flow so as to improve the forecast reliability, accuracy and scientificity. The mud-rock flow early warning method based on the rainfall-probability can directly provide technical support for the monitoring early warning and forecast of the rainfall-type mud-rock flow.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method for early warning of debris flow based on rainfall-probability, which belongs to the field of mountain disasters. Background technique [0002] At present, the early warning methods for rainfall landslides are mostly based on the real-time monitoring of rainfall, and the critical value of rainfall and "rainfall intensity + previous rainfall" or "rainfall intensity + rainfall duration" are the basic means. Such early warning indicators are mainly based on the occurrence of debris flow statistics The number of times and the corresponding rainfall are determined. However, because this method is based on statistical analysis, there is often a greater possibility of false positives or false negatives. According to a large amount of monitoring data in the earthquake-stricken area, it has been found that there have been many rainfall events exceeding the critical rainfall in the Baisha River Basin since 2013, but since 2013,...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G08B21/10G08B31/00G01W1/14
CPCG01W1/14G08B21/10G08B31/00Y02A90/10
Inventor 杨宗佶蔡焕丁朋朋乔建平
Owner INST OF MOUNTAIN HAZARDS & ENVIRONMENT CHINESE ACADEMY OF SCI
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