Trend calculating method used for electric power system containing photovoltaic and thermal loads

Abstract

The invention relates to a trend calculating method used for an electric power system containing photovoltaic and thermal loads. The method comprises the following steps of collecting active output data in a distributed photovoltaic power supply system and thermal load power in a meteorological sensitive load system and taking as variables; calculating an edge cumulative probability distribution function of each variable; according to the collected variables and the edge cumulative probability distribution function, through calculating a Copula function, acquiring joint probability distribution; according to the joint probability distribution, randomly generating a specified quantity of edge cumulative probability distribution values of each variable, and combining the edge cumulative probability distribution function so as to acquire a simulation sample value of each variable; and taking the simulation sample values of all the variables as input and carrying out trend calculating. Compared to the prior art, by using the method of the invention, meteorology correlation between a meteorological sensitive load and photovoltaic output is fully considered, simulation accuracy of an electric power system and energy integration utilization efficiency are increased and there are other advantages.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of power system analysis, in particular to a power flow calculation method for a power system containing photovoltaic and thermal loads. Background technique [0002] The meteorological system is a complex system, and there are differences, similarities, correlations, and couplings between meteorological variables such as light, temperature, humidity, and wind speed, and between the same meteorological variable at different spatial locations. The correlation between meteorological factors makes a certain correlation between intermittent distributed energy sources such as distributed photovoltaic power sources and heat loads. The correlation between distributed photovoltaic power sources has received extensive attention and research in the academic community. For power systems with a high proportion of photovoltaic and thermal loads, in addition to the correlation between distributed photovoltaic power sources, there ...

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Problems solved by technology

Existing power flow calculations for power systems with a high proportion of photovoltaic and thermal loads still only consider the parameters of photovoltaic output to obtain samples of photovoltaic output and the parameters of meteorologically sensitive loads to obtain samples of meteorologically sensitive loads, and then perform Power flow calculation, this method does not consider the connection between photovoltaic output and weather-sensitive loads, resulting in lower authenticity and accuracy of final calculation results

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