ABC-algorithm-based short-term micro-grid load forecasting method

A technology of load forecasting and micro-grid, which is applied in forecasting, calculation, instruments, etc., can solve the problems of unsure of the fluctuation range and singleness of the forecasting results, and achieve the effect of improving the level of load forecasting, accelerating the convergence speed, and improving the performance of the algorithm

Pending Publication Date: 2018-05-18
CENT SOUTH UNIV
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Problems solved by technology

[0003] At present, the load power prediction methods of microgrid are single-point prediction, only a certain value is given, and the possible fluctuation range of the prediction result cannot be determined.

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  • ABC-algorithm-based short-term micro-grid load forecasting method
  • ABC-algorithm-based short-term micro-grid load forecasting method
  • ABC-algorithm-based short-term micro-grid load forecasting method

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Embodiment Construction

[0014] The present invention will be further described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and examples. The following examples are explanations of the present invention and the present invention is not limited to the following examples.

[0015] see figure 1 In this embodiment, a short-term microgrid load forecasting method based on the ABC algorithm, the method includes the following steps:

[0016] Step 1: Obtain microgrid load power data:

[0017] Step 2: Combining the prediction interval coverage PICP and the average bandwidth W of the prediction interval to construct the optimization criterion CWC;

[0018] Step 3: Introduce the tendency operation in the bacterial foraging optimization algorithm into the local search strategy of following bees. If the nectar source is improved, continue to swim forward in this direction until the nectar source is no longer improved or reaches the maximum number of steps until:

[0019] Step 4: Introduce the o...

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Abstract

The invention discloses an ABC-algorithm-based short-term micro-grid load forecasting method. The method comprises the steps that multiple historical load power of a micro-grid is obtained and servesas a sample set; in combination with the prediction interval coverage rate and the prediction interval average bandwidth, optimization criteria are built; a short-term micro-grid load interval probability prediction model based on an artificial swarm cycle neutral network is built, the optimization criteria are subjected to optimizing through an artificial swam algorithm, and a neutral network weight threshold value is updated; a tendency operation in a bacterial foraging optimization algorithm is introduced in a local search strategy following bees, and an optimal nectar source algorithm is introduced to optimize the artificial swam algorithm, so that the algorithm is improved, and the convergence speed is increased. Accordingly, by improving the artificial swam algorithm, the defect thata traditional artificial swam algorithm is low in convergence speed and precision is better overcome, and the micro-grid load forecasting level is effectively improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a short-term micro-grid load forecasting method based on an ABC algorithm. Background technique [0002] A microgrid is a small decentralized system that connects distributed power sources, energy storage devices, energy conversion devices, and monitoring and protection devices to supply power to users. Accurate prediction of microgrid load is an important basis for microgrid operation and energy management, and will directly affect microgrid operation strategy. In the field of load forecasting, the current methods for microgrid load forecasting are mainly divided into traditional forecasting methods and modern intelligent forecasting methods. Traditional forecasting methods mainly include curve extrapolation method, gray forecasting method, regression analysis method, time series method and load derivation method, etc. This kind of method uses probability theory or mathematical statistics theory to carry out load forecasting...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/06
Inventor 廖力清刘洋凌玉华
Owner CENT SOUTH UNIV
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