Structural system vulnerability evaluation method based on ECBN (Explicit Connectivity Bayesian Network)

Abstract

The invention discloses a structural system vulnerability evaluation method based on an ECBN (Explicit Connectivity Bayesian Network). The method aims at the limitations that conventional vulnerability analysis is mainly centralized at a component level and system failure probability reasoning is developed with little consideration to a probabilistic dependency relationship among components. The invention considers a combined effect of various component damages by the ECBN, discloses a root node prior probability evaluation model based on a multi-dimensional performance limit state equation, and strives to really reflect a component damage state and improve evaluation accuracy; the probabilistic dependency relationship among the components is considered by utilizing an analytic hierarchy process, and Bayesian network intermediate node condition probability information is constructed; and the method is particularly practical in a case of shortage of damage data, and finally, implementsreasoning from component vulnerability to structural system vulnerability by a variable elimination algorithm. Insufficient research on vulnerability evaluation of a large-sized engineering structuralsystem is made up, scientific supporting is provided for safety construction and effective operation of the important engineering structural system.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of reliability analysis and evaluation, and relates to a failure probability analysis method of an engineering structure system. The method considers the joint effect of various component probability dependencies and different performance limit states of the structure, and develops a method based on an explicit connected Bayesian network (ECBN). A new method for vulnerability analysis of structural systems. Background technique [0002] Structural vulnerability is defined as the conditional probability of a structure suffering a specific damage state under different levels of external action, which is a branch of structural reliability analysis. Vulnerability first originated in the early 1970s and was applied to the seismic probability risk analysis of nuclear power plants. The seismic vulnerability analysis of structures usually uses ground peak acceleration (PGA), spectral acceleration (SA) and other par...

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Problems solved by technology

[0003] However, the traditional structural vulnerability analysis mainly focuses on the component level, and the research on the overall vulnerability assessment of the structure as a system is relatively scarce. The most vulnerable components of the structure (for example, bridge systems usually use pier columns) are generally used to replace the structural system vulnerability. However, there is no effective method for fragility reasoning from components to structural systems; most of them consider the response demand parameters of a single structure, construct its demand model, and achieve the purpose of simplifying the analysis, without considering the failure probability under the joint action of multiple performance limit states

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