Short-term load forecasting method for microgrid based on independent component analysis and support vector machine

A technology of independent component analysis and short-term load forecasting, applied in forecasting, nuclear methods, computer components, etc., to achieve the effect of smoothing the curve, reducing the amount of calculation, and removing noise interference

Active Publication Date: 2021-11-23
JIANGSU ELECTRIC POWER CO +1
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  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0009] The technical problem to be solved by the present invention is to overcome the difficulty of forecasting caused by the uncertainty of the load in the microgrid, and provide a short-term load forecasting method for the microgrid based on independent component analysis and support vector machine, with the regional daily load of the microgrid as the final Predict variables, while taking into account the noise interference in the historical load data, perform adaptive curve fitting to smooth the load curve, remove noise interference, and avoid the unsmooth defect of the load curve caused by the prediction, so as to improve the accuracy of the model Or reduce the computational load of the model

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  • Short-term load forecasting method for microgrid based on independent component analysis and support vector machine
  • Short-term load forecasting method for microgrid based on independent component analysis and support vector machine
  • Short-term load forecasting method for microgrid based on independent component analysis and support vector machine

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Embodiment Construction

[0054] Embodiments of the present invention will be described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

[0055] Such as figure 1 As shown, the present invention designs a microgrid short-term load forecasting method based on independent component analysis and support vector machine, which specifically includes the following steps:

[0056] Step S1, using the Chebyshevv orthogonal polynomial to perform curve fitting on the historical daily load data of the microgrid area, and adding a penalty function to optimize the fitting effect.

[0057] The historical daily load data of a microgrid area can be obtained from the SCADA database system of the power system. For example, the load data can be but not limited to power, and the collection cycle is 15min / time. Therefore, there are 96 collection points for daily load data, which can form a historical daily load curve; The historical daily load SCADA data is collected, transmitted, and stored in a series of links. Due to...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a microgrid short-term load forecasting method based on independent component analysis and support vector machine, including: using Chebyshevv orthogonal polynomials to perform curve fitting on the historical daily load data of the microgrid area, and adding a penalty function for optimization; updating The historical load data is analyzed independently by using the independent component analysis method to obtain the load independent separation source and mixing matrix of the historical load data; for the meteorological data obtained on the historical day and the forecast day, the principal component analysis method is used to obtain the principal component vector, and combined with The date data are used together to form decision-making data; the mixing matrix of historical load data is used as the target data, combined with the historical daily decision-making data, the support vector machine and the fireworks algorithm are used to optimize its parameter penalty factor and kernel parameters, and obtain the optimal support vector machine training model ; Substitute the forecasted daily decision-making data to obtain the forecasted daily load curve. The invention can remove noise interference, and can effectively and accurately predict the future short-term load of the microgrid.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a short-term load forecasting method for a micro-grid based on independent component analysis and a support vector machine, and belongs to the technical field of power system scheduling and operation. Background technique [0002] With the continuous development of society, the human demand for energy is also increasing. In the electric power industry, the power generation pattern dominated by traditional fossil energy has also become more and more disadvantageous due to the gradual depletion of resources and environmental problems. With the development of science and technology in recent years, various new energy sources can be used for power generation, such as wind power and photovoltaic power generation, It is gradually applied to the power system, but it also brings problems and challenges to the power system scheduling and operation while solving the problem of energy depletion. [0003] Traditional short-term load forec...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06G06N20/10G06K9/62
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/06G06F18/2134G06F18/2135
Inventor 侍红兵周洪益殷芸辉胥峥胡志林蒋浩张雄义
Owner JIANGSU ELECTRIC POWER CO
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