Low-voltage transformer area low-voltage risk assessment method based on distribution network load prediction

Abstract

The invention relates to the technical field of distribution network optimization, in particular to a low-voltage transformer area low-voltage risk assessment method based on distribution network loadprediction, which comprises the following steps: acquiring monthly maximum load and previous monthly growth rate of each transformer area, and predicting monthly maximum load of each transformer areain the current monthly; acquiring monthly newly installed capacity, and estimating the load growth amount caused by the reported capacity according to the former newly installed capacity coincidencerate; carrying out superposition prediction on the actual monthly maximum load of the low-voltage transformer area; calculating a voltage drop amplitude by taking the actual monthly maximum load as aline end load, and preliminarily evaluating a low-voltage transformer area of an emergency risk; for the voltage drop proportion caused by the newly-added 10 kW installed capacity, a low-voltage transformer area with great and general risks is evaluated. According to the method, the voltage states of the head end and the tail end are considered, the influence of the installed capacity is brought into the work of load prediction and low-voltage risk assessment, the assessment process is simple, implementation is convenient, the engineering practicability is good, and the low-voltage risk statecan be tracked regularly and comprehensively.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of distribution network optimization, and more specifically, to a low-voltage risk assessment method for low-voltage station areas based on distribution network load prediction. Background technique [0002] When the voltage level of a certain area in the low-voltage station area decreases, the load rate of the distribution transformer and the voltage data of the low-voltage outgoing line in the remote call-out test area can quickly and effectively reflect the voltage state of the head end of the low-voltage station area, which is the low-voltage fault in the fault area. The discovery and rectification of voltage problems provides a reference direction. However, since the traditional status inquiry of low-voltage stations relies on real-time data from remote surveys, the work of confirming the voltage status at the head end of the station has not been considered. Therefore, the traditional low-voltage stati...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

However, the current risk assessment method used in the application of low-voltage distribution network operation and maintenance still stays at the level of simply judging the load status of distribution transformers, and has not yet formed an assessment method with good engineering practicability and the ability to regularly and comprehensively track low-voltage risk status

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