Aero-engine turbine rotor system reliability analysis method based on joint tree

Abstract

The invention discloses an aero-engine turbine rotor system reliability analysis method based on a joint tree, and the method comprises the following steps: S1, carrying out the fault mode analysis, and building a fault tree; s2, according to a fault tree and Bayesian network conversion rule, performing conversion to obtain a turbine rotor system fault mode Bayesian network; s3, dividing the turbine rotor system fault mode Bayesian network into a single-connected network and a multi-connected network according to the D-Separations; s4, using a static Bayesian network reasoning method todirectly carrying out probability derivation on the single-connected network, and solving the occurrence probability of the failure mode of each system component; and S5, deducing the multi-connected networkby adopting a joint tree method, and solving the system failure rate and the occurrence probability of each failure mode. According to the method, reasoning calculation is carried out by adopting a combined tree method, the reliability of the turbine rotor system can be derived more accurately and efficiently, data information and a model structure can be continuously improved through learning, and the reliability analysis capability is improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of reliability analysis, in particular to a reliability analysis method for an aeroengine turbine rotor system based on a joint tree. Background technique [0002] With the development of society and technology in recent years, the aviation industry has assumed more and more important responsibilities. As an important device of an aircraft, an aero engine determines its flight speed, payload, economy and safety. In the development, production and use of aero-engines, there are various complex problems and many influencing factors that people have not yet recognized and understood. Therefore, in the actual operation of aero-engines, failures will occur to varying degrees. According to statistics, in modern aviation equipment, especially military fighter jets, most of the major accidents caused by mechanical failures are related to aero-engines. Among all the major mechanical fracture failures of aero-engines in my coun...

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Problems solved by technology

Fault tree analysis is one of the most commonly used methods in reliability analysis because the component model and analysis process are relatively simple and direct, and can analyze the reliability of the system qualitatively and quantitatively. It is difficult to accurately describe every event in the system, which has certain limitations; the failure mode and effect analysis evaluates the risks caused by different failure modes through the failure causes of the system, subsystems, and components, etc., and is used in the reliability design stage to provide designers with Provides a better design solution, but it cannot play a key role in the later stage of system use and maintenance; Monte Carlo method, also known as random sampling method, is a method based on sampling theory, using random numbers to sample relevant independent random variables Experiments or stochastic simulations to solve approximate numerical methods for reliability, but time-consuming and computationally inefficient

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