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Ultra-short-term forecasting method of wind power based on cos decaying atomic decomposition and chaos theory

A technology for ultra-short-term forecasting and wind power, applied in forecasting, data processing applications, instruments, etc., can solve problems such as the inability to reflect the dynamic characteristics of the system and the inability to track power trends, and achieve high practical value, clear physical meaning, and high precision. Effect

Active Publication Date: 2022-07-26
NORTHEAST DIANLI UNIVERSITY +3
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AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

For the artificial intelligence method, it has great advantages in dealing with nonlinear time series, but it cannot reflect the dynamic characteristics of the system
Overall, existing forecasts fail to track future power trends

Method used

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  • Ultra-short-term forecasting method of wind power based on cos decaying atomic decomposition and chaos theory
  • Ultra-short-term forecasting method of wind power based on cos decaying atomic decomposition and chaos theory
  • Ultra-short-term forecasting method of wind power based on cos decaying atomic decomposition and chaos theory

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Embodiment Construction

[0040] A method for ultra-short-term forecasting of wind power based on cos decaying atomic decomposition and chaos theory of the present invention will be further described below with reference to the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments.

[0041] combine Figure 1-Figure 3 , a method for ultra-short-term forecasting of wind power based on cos decaying atomic decomposition and chaos theory of the present invention, comprising the following steps:

[0042] 1) Establishment of cos overcomplete atomic library

[0043] Considering the volatility, intermittency and randomness of wind power, after decomposing the original wind power sequence, an atom library with different characteristics is established, and the optimal atom is adaptively selected at the same time, and cos is used as the basis function of ASD. The expression is formula (1):

[0044]

[0045] in: is a Gaussian window function; the parameter group is where s is the scaling transformation parameter,...

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Abstract

The invention relates to the technical field of wind power, and is an ultra-short-term prediction method for wind power based on cos decaying atomic decomposition and chaos theory. Compared with the existing chaos prediction model, ultra-short-term prediction of wind power based on cos decaying atomic decomposition and chaos theory, simulation calculation and error analysis, and the existing time series that only consider historical wind power data, the invention can track the future power trend, The physical meaning is clear, and the attenuation characteristics of wind power are considered. The ultra-short-term prediction method of wind power power based on cos decaying atomic decomposition and chaos theory has high prediction accuracy, effective prediction results, and strong applicability and practicability.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of wind power, and is an ultra-short-term forecasting method for wind power based on cos decaying atomic decomposition and chaos theory. Background technique [0002] Wind power is the new energy with the most large-scale development conditions. Its output characteristics are different from thermal power and nuclear power. It is a typical intermittent power source, mainly determined by meteorological factors such as wind speed and wind direction, and has significant anti-peak characteristics and uncertainty. The integration of large-scale wind power into the grid brings severe challenges to the operation of the power system. If accurate wind power prediction can bring positive impact on the safe operation of the power system and power dispatching, better economic and environmental benefits can be obtained. [0003] The ultra-short-term forecast of wind power refers to the forecast for the next 15 minutes to...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06G06F17/18
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/06G06F17/18
Inventor 杨茂刘慧宇崔杨严干贵杨滢璇
Owner NORTHEAST DIANLI UNIVERSITY