Prediction method for demand side heat supply load

A forecasting method and load forecasting technology, applied in forecasting, instrumentation, marketing, etc., can solve the problems of poor forecasting accuracy, unfavorable scheduling optimization, large forecasting deviation, etc., to solve the problem of low accuracy, improve accuracy, and reduce forecasting The effect of bias

Pending Publication Date: 2019-12-03
天津华春智慧能源科技发展有限公司
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  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0004] This application provides a demand-side heating load prediction method to solve the problem that the single load forecasting algorithm in the prior art has poor prediction accuracy and large prediction deviation, which is not conducive to later scheduling optimization; the training time is long, and the calculation amount during use bigger problem

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  • Prediction method for demand side heat supply load
  • Prediction method for demand side heat supply load
  • Prediction method for demand side heat supply load

Examples

Experimental program
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Effect test

Embodiment 1

[0055] Provide the power values ​​under the same heating area on November 15, November 30, December 15, December 30, January 15, and January 30 every year from 2007 to 2018, as shown in Table 1.

[0056] Table 1. Power value table under the same heating area from the beginning of November 2007 to the end of 2018 (unit: kWh)

[0057] time 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 November 15 717.38 611.6 753.26 779.7 707.87 711.8 745.4 809.1 741 758 750 815 November 30 740.7 711 839.54 807.77 787.92 795.8 849.4 890.7 865 870 842 866 December 15 848.43 737.6 785.13 564.92 543.83 652.6 776.9 884.4 808 855 828 877 December 30 808.73 753.3 855.16 954.71 877.47 893.4 959 971.6 917 988 935 990 January 15 938.06 855.1 1027.8 1024.8 995.14 989.4 1076 1067 989 1055 991 1018 January 30 998.85 871.4 1003 1097.1 1002.4 1000 1090 1115 1044 1138 1042 109...

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Abstract

The embodiment of the invention provides a prediction method for a demand side heat supply load. The prediction method comprises the following steps that S1, collecting regional heat supply historicaldata; S2, performing data cleaning on the heat supply historical data to realize data abnormal value elimination and blank data filling; S3, establishing a heat supply load model; S4, performing heatsupply load prediction. According to the method of the invention, the calculation process is simplified under the condition that the precision is not lost, so that the lightweight mobile equipment can be embedded into the method, the prediction equipment can be conveniently installed and deployed on a demand side (a user side), and the prediction precision and credibility are improved. Predictionwith relatively high confidence can be realized only by depending on a load time sequence, and the operability and real-time performance of the algorithm in an industrial application environment areimproved.

Description

technical field [0001] The present application relates to the technical field of heating load forecasting, and in particular to a forecasting method of demand-side heating load. Background technique [0002] The heat supply load is a measure of the heat supply company's ability to provide heat to users, and it is an important indicator to measure the heat supply company's ability to provide heat. District central heating should determine the best operation plan according to the needs of heat load, and the main goal is to meet the needs of heat load. The regional power management department should fully consider the heat supply load curve and energy-saving factors when formulating the central heating power dispatching curve of the community, and should not limit the external heat supply of the central heating of the community with the power index. Therefore, accurate forecasting of regional heating and heating load (referred to as heating load) will not only help the power g...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q30/02G06Q50/06G06F17/50
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q30/0202G06Q50/06
Inventor 王晟赵义李泽青夏兆福
Owner 天津华春智慧能源科技发展有限公司
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