Risk-considered benefit distribution method and device for virtual power plant

Abstract

The invention discloses a risk-considered benefit distribution method and device for a virtual power plant. The method comprises the following steps: acquiring historical measured data and historicalpredicted data of each participant in the virtual power plant; obtaining a corresponding prediction error and a probability density function according to calculation; fitting a probability density function to obtain a probability distribution curve; integrating the probability distribution curve to obtain an accumulated probability distribution function; obtaining a prediction precision score according to the prediction error and the cumulative probability distribution function; setting a weight for each prediction precision score to enable the sum of all the weights to be 1; according to theprediction precision score and the corresponding weight, calculating to obtain a risk factor; normalizing all the risk factors to obtain corrected risk factors; and correcting the shape value according to the correction risk factor to obtain the distribution income corresponding to each participant. According to the invention, the risk factor of each participant is introduced into the shapley value to ensure the fairness of allocation and the stability of alliance.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of power system market transactions, in particular to a risk-considered virtual power plant benefit distribution method and device. Background technique [0002] In recent years, my country's distributed energy resources (DER) has developed rapidly, but its small capacity and strong uncertainty hinder it from participating in the electricity market alone. Because of the strong complementarity of each DER, such as heavy load during the day and little wind power , more photovoltaic power generation; small load at night, more wind power, more charging of electric vehicles, through cooperation in the form of virtual power plant (Virtual Power Plant, VPP) to participate in grid operation and market transactions, while improving the capacity of wind power and photovoltaic power generation , to enhance its economic benefits. In a competitive power market environment, how to establish a fair and reasonable benefit di...

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Problems solved by technology

[0003] Most of the existing research on VPP focuses on its participation in power market bidding as a whole, and pays less attention to the benefit distribution mechanism of each DER. The existing VPP benefit distribution method on the Shapley value method assumes that all cooperative members bear equal risks. It is in line with reality, so it is urgent to study the method of VPP benefit distribution that considers risks

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